Poilievre Holding Lead Over Trudeau as Choice for Prime Minister, New Poll Finds

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre greet each other in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa in a file photo. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)

A new poll shows that more respondents prefer newly minted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as Canada’s prime minister compared to incumbent Justin Trudeau.

The Ipsos poll, conducted on behalf of Global News, shows that 35 percent of the 1,002 Canadian adults surveyed said Poilievre is the best candidate for prime minister, while 31 percent were still putting their faith in Trudeau, who is falling behind the Conservative leader in major provinces.

The new poll, conducted from Sept. 19 to 20 and released Sept. 29, found Poilievre leading in all provinces except B.C., Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

In British Columbia, where Trudeau has traditionally garnered more support, the poll shows he now has 38 percent of respondents’ support—just 2 percentage points ahead of  Poilievre.

In Ontario, where the Conservatives have struggled for years to win over voters, 41 percent of respondents preferred Poilievre, compared to 34 percent for Trudeau.

Earlier Poll

The new poll follows another poll also by Ipsos, released a day earlier, on Sept. 28, that showed the Tories nudging ahead.

The earlier poll, conducted between Sept. 19 and Sept. 21 and also exclusively for Global News, found the Conservatives leading the Liberals by five percentage points among decided voters.

Among the 1,000 Canadian adults surveyed, 35 percent said they preferred the Tories compared to 30 percent for the Liberals, 20 percent for the NDP, and 7 percent nationally for the Bloc Quebecois. That gap is wider in Ontario, where 37 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Tories compared to 30 percent for the Liberals.

In total, two-thirds (67 percent) of the respondents said it is time for the Liberals to make way for another political party, while support for Trudeau’s re-election dipped by four percentage points, to 33 percent, compared to polling done the same time last fall when it had just won re-election on Sept. 20, 2021.

The results of the new poll released Sept. 29 show that respondents are now viewing the Liberal leader in a more negative light compared to his new Conservative counterpart.

In particular, 37 percent of the respondents said Trudeau was “in over their head” as prime minister, compared to 21 percent for Poilievre.

The two Ipsos polls both carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.