Commentary

President Donald Trump has rightly raised the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, and is joining with the Cuban people and democratic opposition to pressure the communist dictatorship to institute immediate reforms.

The Trump administration seeks to transform the failed state through the release of political prisoners, support for small businesses, and democratic elections. But if reform is not quick enough, Cuba’s communist leadership could be relatively easily removed through U.S. military action.

There are daily reports of anti-communist and “Viva Trump” graffiti in Cuba. It would be a strategic mistake to delay the relatively easy win in Cuba for the longer and more difficult fight against Islamic extremism in Iran. Delaying regime change in Cuba may incentivize Russia and China to keep the Iran war going so that the United States again gets bogged down in the Middle East and never fixes Cuba.

Due to greater geographic proximity, local Cuban support, and Cuba’s smaller size, regime change in the country would be a much easier win than Iran has proven to be, and could therefore be a goal the United States achieves first while simultaneously addressing the longer-term fight against the Iranian regime.

In early January, the Trump administration captured Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, stopped Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba by seizing tankers, and on Jan. 29 threatened tariffs against any country that supplies Cuba with oil. Mexico delivered the last 86,000 barrels of imported oil to Cuba on Jan. 9. Twenty days later, the United States threatened higher tariffs on countries that try to send oil to Cuba.

The resulting oil shortages are causing electric grid blackouts that pressure the regime, but also cause the people to suffer. Cuba only produces about 40 percent of its oil needs. Hospital generators, water pumping plants, and ambulances require fuel. Only half of the country’s fleet of garbage trucks is now operational. Trash is piling up in the streets, which is a health hazard. Many bus services have stopped, and streets are largely empty of cars.

In response to their rising health needs, the United States sent food kits worth $3 million in January, along with water purification tablets and other such assistance. The next month, the United States began allowing U.S. companies to deliver fuel to private companies in Cuba in a bid to increase their influence and viability. On March 16, the entire country went dark for the first time since the quarantine started.

Peaceful protests in Cuba are increasing in both Havana and Santiago, Cuba’s second-largest city. Protests have gone on for more than 10 consecutive days and are starting to escalate.

In Moron, a city of 70,000 in central Cuba, a riot erupted on March 13. Participants ransacked the local headquarters of the Cuban communist party. They lit a bonfire of the party’s documents, computers, and office furniture. It was the first attack on a Cuban communist office since the ill-fated 1953 revolution. Regime forces allegedly shot one protester.

The longer the quarantine continues, the more desperate and likely the Cuban people are to revolt on a larger scale. That could result in regime change, but it also risks a massacre that may scare people into further subservience.

The regime is now negotiating with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and has started to cave by releasing some political prisoners and allowing Cuban expatriates to invest in Cuban businesses. On March 16, the great-nephew of Fidel Castro announced that Cuba would open for more business with Cubans living abroad. They would now be allowed to invest in businesses and infrastructure in Cuba.

But this is too little, too late. Continuing the quarantine risks a decrease in support among the Cuban people for the United States. Perhaps this is what the regime is counting on. Also, Russia and China are trying to break the quarantine. A sanctioned Russian oil tanker is currently making its way across the Atlantic Ocean toward Cuba to break the blockade. The state-owned vessel carries 730,000 barrels of crude and will likely reach Cuba on March 23. A Hong Kong-flagged tanker reportedly has 200,000 barrels of diesel and took an erratic course towards Cuba. It was recently in the northwestern Caribbean.

The oil quarantine cannot go on forever, especially if it risks conflict with Russia and China. If the Cuban government does not rapidly increase the pace of its democratic and market reforms, the United States should use special forces to remove the country’s leader as it did in Venezuela. As Rubio said on March 17, Cuba’s “economy doesn’t work … They’re in a lot of trouble, and the people in charge, they don’t know how to fix it, so they have to get new people in charge.”

The fact that the United States must provide humanitarian assistance to Cuba also indicates that the quarantine strategy has played out, and the issue must be forced with a Maduro-style raid on the country’s communist leadership. Once Cuba’s recalcitrant leaders are gone, a new Cuban president willing to spurn Russia and China in favor of pro-democracy market reforms could emerge. The raid strategy could be repeated as long as it takes to find the right man (or, in the case of Delcy Rodríguez, woman) for the job.

As the number of reforms increases, or if the United States manages to democratize the country in some other way, such as regime change or military operation, the Cuban people will appreciate the strategy for being effective in ending communism in Cuba once and for all. The future for Cuba will be brighter when the communist wall crumbles and Cubans and Americans are finally able to cooperate again.

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