Percentage of Americans Who Say Local Crime Is Up Hits 50-Year High

Broken Arrow, Okla., police and fire department investigate the scene of a fire with multiple fatalities at the corner South Hickory Ave. and West Galveston St. on Oct. 27, 2022. (Ian Maule/Tulsa World via AP)

The percentage of Americans who think local crime is getting worse hit its highest level in five decades, according to a Gallup poll released on Oct. 28.

A record 56 percent of respondents said they believe there’s more crime locally now than there was a year ago.

Nearly 4 in 5 (78 percent) said crime has increased nationwide since last year, according to Gallup, which has conducted the survey every year since 1972.

The Oct. 3 to Oct. 20 random-sample survey of 1,009 adults living in all 50 states and Washington also found that concern about being a victim of crime has sharply increased since 2021.

The 56 percent who believe there’s more crime where they live is five percentage points higher than results from the same Gallup poll conducted last year and two percentage points higher than the previous record, which was set in 1972. More than 28 percent said crime has decreased locally, while 14 percent believe it was the same as last year.

Partisanship and Polls

There are significant variations in the results by partisan affiliation, with 73 percent of respondents who identified as Republicans maintaining that they believe that local crime has increased, with 51 percent of independents and 42 percent of Democrats in agreement.

The 78 percent who perceive that crime is increasing nationwide is eight percentage points higher than in 2021 and matches 2020’s Gallup poll results. The 2020 and 2022 results are the highest since 1992, when 89 percent believed that crime had increased from the previous year nationwide. About 13 percent said there was less crime and 7 percent believe that crime nationwide remained the same from 2021 to 2022.

The same partisan spread is evident in beliefs regarding national crime. More than 95 percent of Republicans—the highest percentage of any group recorded in the annual surveys—said crime is increasing nationwide. Nearly 75 percent of independents and 61 percent of Democrats agreed.

That gap between how more Americans believe crime is increasing nationally than locally is consistent with Gallup polls since the organization began conducting annual statistical surveys on crime in 1965.

Over that near-60-year span, on average, 44 percent perceive that crime has increased locally, while an average of 67 percent believe that crime increased nationwide over the previous year.

Frequent or occasional worry about being a victim of six types of crimes in the survey has increased in the past year, including computer hacking (75 percent) and identity theft (73 percent).

Poll respondents worry least about being assaulted or killed by a coworker on the job (9 percent) or being the victim of terrorism (27 percent).

Police arrest a shooting suspect outside a resident's home in Nespelem, Wash., on Oct. 21, 2022. (Robin Redstar via AP)

Perception and Reality

Separating perception from reality in determining if crime has increased over the past year hasn’t been made any easier by the FBI, which has adopted a new system to replace its Uniform Crime Report (UCR), which had been the most comprehensive annual snapshot of crime nationwide since 1930.

When the FBI released its new version of the UCR, the 2021 Crime in the Nation Report, in early October, only 63 percent of the nation’s more than 18,000 law enforcement agencies had submitted their 2021 data, the lowest participation level since at least 1979.

Only 52 percent of all agencies submitted a full year’s worth of data, according to the FBI. Among those that didn’t provide any information for the agency’s annual report were the New York City Police Department, the Los Angeles Police Department, and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.

The reason cited by agencies for not submitting data for the FBI’s annual report—which has always been voluntary—is the adoption of its new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), a data-reporting system that requires greater detail, technical proficiency, and time-consuming effort. This was the first year that NIBRS became the only way to submit data to the agency.

After the 2021 data documented across-the-board increases in crime, including a nearly 30 percent increase in homicides in 2020 from 2019—the highest year-over-year increase recorded in FBI history—the FBI has attempted to fill the gaps in a lack of verified data regarding 2021 crime statistics with estimates.

The 2021 Crime in the Nation Report estimates an overall decline in violent crime by 1 percent in 2021 from 2020, driven largely by reductions in the robbery rate, which it estimates declined by 8.9 percent.

The FBI also estimates a 4.3 percent increase in homicides between 2020 and 2021, after the near-30-percent hike between 2019 and 2020.

The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), a Washington-based nonprofit that studies criminal justice policy, published a January study of crime trends across 27 major U.S. cities that found that homicides rose by 5 percent and aggravated assaults increased by 4 percent between 2020 and 2021.

In its mid-year 2022 report published in July, the CCJ found that homicides had declined by 2 percent but that aggravated assaults were up by 4 percent and robberies were up by 19 percent from 2021.

AH Datalytics, a New Orleans-based analytics firm that maintains an updated survey of murders in U.S. cities with 100,000 or more residents, reported similar findings, documenting a 5.7 percent increase in murders between 2020 and 2021. In its mid-year report, AH Datalytics reported a 4.5 percent decrease in murders across the cities it surveys.

Republican candidate for Pennsylvania Governor Doug Mastriano holds a rally at Deja Vu Social Club in Philadelphia on Sept. 30, 2022. (Mark Makela/Getty Images)

Dealing With Crime

The perception that crime is increasing will be on voters’ minds when they cast midterm ballots, and the fact that respondents across a slate of October surveys say they believe that Republicans are better suited to reduce crime has many Republican candidates highlighting the issue in closing campaign pitches.

In a Sept. 30 to Oct. 2 POLITICO/Morning Consult poll of more than 2,000 registered voters across the country published on Oct. 5, more than 64 percent of respondents cited crime as a “major issue.”

When asked by POLITICO/Morning Consult, “Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?” 45 percent said Republicans, 38 percent said Democrats, and 17 percent they didn’t know.

According to an Oct. 9 to Oct. 12 Fox News poll of 1,206 randomly selected registered voters nationwide published on Oct. 16, 79 percent cited crime as a major issue that will influence how they vote, second only to inflation at 89 percent. More than 54 percent of respondents said they trust Republicans more on the issue, while 39 percent say they trust Democrats more.

An Oct. 21 to Oct. 22 ABC News/Ipsos “probability sample” of 686 adults, including 618 registered voters, published on Oct. 23 confirms that there’s a perception that crime is increasing and that Republicans are better suited to deal with it. More than one in three respondents trusted Republicans compared to the 22 percent who put faith in the Democrats on the issue.