The Orange County Health Care Agency (OCHCA) reported 1,058 new cases of COVID-19 but no additional deaths on Nov. 29, bringing the county’s totals to 77,819 cases with 1,577 fatalities.
The number of county residents hospitalized with the virus jumped sharply, to 597 on Nov. 29 from 534 on Nov. 28, with the number of patients in intensive care rising to 148 from 138, according to the OCHCA.
The change in the three-day average of hospitalized patients rose to 13.6 percent from 12.3 percent. The county has 25 percent of its intensive care unit (ICU) beds and 63 percent of its ventilators available.
The mounting numbers over the holiday weekend seem to confirm officials’ fears of a Thanksgiving-fueled surge. Orange County CEO Frank Kim said earlier this week that he was “very concerned” about the rise in cases and hospitalizations.
“And even though the various hospital [executives] I have conversations with seem more confident today than they were early on in the disease in how to treat it, I’m not taking any of it lightly,” Kim said.
“Any rise in hospitalizations and ICU rates is a significant concern for our community.”
Officials recommend waiting at least two days after an event or gathering to get tested because the infection might not be detected right away.
Andrew Noymer, a University of California–Irvine associate professor of population health and disease prevention, warned of a grim winter.
“I’m very apprehensive of the trends we’re going to see after Thanksgiving,” Noymer said. “People don’t appreciate that we were recording deaths from the summer wave through October.”
Noymer predicted more cases than the July peak.
“But this is not just going to be like another July and go away,” Noymer said. “I think it’s going to get worse.”
The last time hospitalization rates were this high was Aug. 10, Noymer said.
“At the end of next week, we’ll be back to July [levels],” Noymer said. “And will it crest like in July or keep getting worse. There’s reasons to believe we could just keep getting worse.”
Noymer said that’s mainly because the colder weather is pushing people into more indoor activities and some students are still attending classes in classrooms.
The worst day for COVID-19 hospitalizations in Orange County was July 14, when there were 722 patients.
In the state’s tiered monitoring system, which had been updated on Tuesdays but is now updated more than once a week due to the “recent, unprecedented surge,” the county’s adjusted daily case rate per 100,000 residents jumped to 18.7 from 10.8, and the positivity rate swelled to 7.6 percent from 4.6 percent.
The positivity rate fits in the red tier of the state’s four-tier reopening roadmap, but the daily case rate per 100,000 is well past the 8 percent threshold for the most-restrictive purple tier.
Kim said he was optimistic vaccines are on the way and are scheduled to arrive by year’s end. Hospital systems will get the vaccines directly and individual hospitals will receive doses from the county, Kim said.
Frontline health care workers will be among the first to receive vaccinations, along with people with underlying health conditions that make them especially vulnerable to the disease.
The hope is that increased testing and awareness of infections will encourage more quarantining and isolation and other social distancing practices that help curb the spread of the virus, Kim said.
The county’s tests per 100,000 stand at 419.1, outstripping the county’s goals for testing at this point, Kim said.
Kim said the county is focusing on encouraging testing. The number of tests conducted in the county was 1,445,183, including 8,037 reported on Nov. 29. There have been 59,401 documented recoveries.