Anticipating what tactics Beijing might use against U.S. President Donald Trump amid trade negotiations, several media outlets here, in Europe, and elsewhere have begun to speculate that China will threaten to distance its economy and its trade from the dollar—de-dollarize in the popular parlance—and perhaps sell off its extensive holdings of U.S. Treasury debt. Neither act, however, is at all likely, certainly not as an immediate bargaining chip.
It is easy to see why commentators would seize on notions like de-dollarization. Beijing for years has sought to raise the yuan’s international profile, often at the expense of the U.S. dollar. In its wide-ranging Belt and Road Initiative, for instance, it often insists that arrangements and contracts are denominated in yuan and not dollars, as is customary elsewhere.Beijing has promoted the idea of moving away from the dollar among the so-called BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank denominates loans and grants in yuan, not dollars. Beijing has contracted for large oil purchases in yuan, not dollars. Its extensive dealings with Russia dispense with the use of dollars. And the People’s Bank of China has aided the effort by promoting a digital yuan.
