Commentary
The yield curve is frequently mentioned in the investment media, and by investment and economic analysts. The yield curve has always been important for fixed income investors but has become an important topic of discussion over the last couple of years since it became “inverted,” in the jargon of Wall Street. This phenomenon has been an excellent indicator of an upcoming recession. However, the yield curve, as defined by the 10-year minus two-year U.S. Treasury spread became inverted in the early summer of 2022. As we head into 2026, there has been no recession.
