ViewpointsOpinionWhy Are Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?SavePrintU.S. dollar banknotes are seen through a printed stock graph in this illustration taken on Feb. 7, 2018. Dado Ruvic/ReutersDaniel Lacalle12/20/2020|Updated: 12/21/2020CommentaryAt the end of every year, we receive numerous estimates of global GDP growth and inflation for the following year. Historically, in almost all cases, expectations of inflation and growth are too optimistic in December for the following year.We had a problem loading this article. Please enable javascript or use a different browser. If the issue persists, please visit our help center.Share this articleLeave a commentDaniel LacalleAuthorDaniel Lacalle, Ph.D., is chief economist at hedge fund Tressis and author of the bestselling books “Freedom or Equality” (2020), “Escape from the Central Bank Trap” (2017), “The Energy World Is Flat” (2015), and “Life in the Financial Markets.”websiteAuthor’s Selected ArticlesCentral Banks Do Not Prevent Financial Crises or Control InflationAug 23, 2025The European Union’s Agreement With the United States Is Positive and RealisticAug 04, 2025The US Dollar Remains the World’s Top Reserve CurrencyJul 21, 2025How Analysts Misjudged the US Economy: Growth, Inflation, and Fiscal Surprises in 2025Jul 14, 2025Related Topicsinflationgdp growtheconomic forecasts
