Viewpoints
Opinion

Where’s the Recession?

In spite of the fact that the interest rate spread has been negative for 18 months—the longest in history—there’s been no recession. What happened?
Where’s the Recession?
Billion Photos/Shutterstock
James L. Doti
&
Raymond Sfeir
|Updated:
0:00
Commentary

Whenever the interest rate spread between the long 10-year T-Bond and the short 90-day T-Bill has turned negative, it has invariably been followed by a recession. Yet, in spite of the fact that the interest rate spread has been negative for 18 months—the longest in history—there’s been no recession. What happened?

Dr. James L. Doti is president emeritus and professor of economics at Chapman University. He earned his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Chicago, where he was an Edward Hilman and National Science Foundation Fellow. He joined Chapman University in 1974 and in 1978, founded the University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research.