Canada’s families have been shrinking for decades, and we did not arrive at a historic low fertility rate overnight. When birth rates decline year after year, as has been the case in Canada, they reveal something deeper about our society.
The study revealed a gap between the number of children Canadians would ideally like to have and the number of children they intend to have. On average, Canadian adults say they want about two children but report they intend to have an average of just over 1.5 children.
Not all intentions are realized. The total fertility rate, an estimate of the average number of children a woman will have over her lifetime, was just 1.25 children in 2024.
Canada’s fertility remains below replacement level—internationally recognized as 2.1 children per family—and is trending in the wrong direction. While Canada’s population has never been higher, having a healthy fertility rate is typically essential to a country’s long-term prosperity and health and, as noted in the research, important to the well-being and life satisfaction of parents.
Although the national implications are important, our primary concern is the effect of the gap between fertility desires and intentions on well-being. Our study found that “undershooting,” meaning having fewer children than planned, has a noticeable effect on life satisfaction. When asking adults aged 40 to 44 who participated in the study about their life satisfaction, those who achieved their desired family size averaged 6.2 out of 10 while those who undershot their fertility ideal averaged 5.8. We found that over half of respondents aged 40 to 44 had fewer children than they said they wanted. Ensuring Canadian families feel able to have the family size they desire should be an important social concern.
We were surprised that worries around child-care affordability and availability affecting fertility decisions increased between 2022 and the current survey. These worries increased despite the federal government spending more than $30 billion over the previous five years on daycare affordability and access. The rapid reduction of some daycare fees has increased demand beyond available supply. This may have increased awareness about daycare cost and access issues, increasing worries among parents and potential parents who were considering having more children.
Public policy proposals that address issues such as housing and affordability can help. Policymakers should be concerned about Canadians’ ability to achieve the family life they desire. As the results of the survey show, not all factors can be addressed through public policy. Civil society has a role to play in strengthening community support for parents and in shaping how we think about and approach parenting.
