Commentary
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a conference at Standford University on Oct. 17 that the Chinese regime is escalating its threat against Taiwan and accelerating its plan to take the island by force. He said that by doing so, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is signaling that it’s no longer happy with the status quo, the “One China” policy, and strategic ambiguity on the part of the United States.
“The wheels of history are rolling toward China’s reunification,” Xi Jinping said, referring to Taiwan at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Oct. 16.
Since assuming office in 2021, President Joe Biden has “accidentally” said—at least three or four times—that the United States would fight for Taiwan, although the White House walked back this statement each time.
On Oct. 18, CCP ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters that Blinken’s words prove that the United States is reneging on its promise to uphold the “One China” policy.
It appears that Blinken’s assessment is correct and that the CCP is no longer happy with the status quo because, in his two-hour-long speech at the Party congress, Xi said that the CCP has “the option to take all necessary measures” in absorbing Taiwan, which is a core component on his “great rejuvenation of China” agenda.
The CCP has been identified by the United States and most Western and Japanese defense and intelligence agencies as the largest threat to global security.
Going into this year’s twice-per-decade CCP congress, China is plagued by its worst economy in decades. The GDP is expected to grow by less than 3 percent, the yuan broke the magic barrier of seven to the dollar, and the real estate sector, which represents about a quarter of the economy, is facing a debt bubble not seen in human history. Meanwhile, local governments are carrying a debt of nearly $8 trillion with no visible means of repayment.
Xi made several statements in direct conflict with current economic practices in his speech. Xi stressed the importance of frugality. However, the Bank of China is cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy. He promised to develop indigenous technology, while his own crackdowns on the Chinese tech sector have caused it to lose $1 trillion in value. Additionally, despite his talk of “common prosperity” and raising the income of the poor, he doubled down on the “zero-COVID” policy that is crippling the economy.
It’s normal for the GDP and economic data to be read during the conference, including official growth numbers for the past quarter and data on industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and real estate prices. But this has been postponed this year. The National Bureau of Statistics has yet to release the data or explain why it is being delayed. Foreign analysts believe that China is in worse economic shape than Beijing claims.
The CCP, known for its lack of transparency, has been increasingly guarded about its economic data. Last year, it stopped releasing data on the inflation of construction costs. Additionally, some of the public data appear to have been skewed. This summer, the CCP claimed a significant increase in exports to the United States, but observers have reported that the number of containers has remained relatively unchanged.
Meanwhile, at the congress, Xi stressed his commitment to growing China into a “medium-developed country” by 2035. However, he would have to increase the per capita GDP from $12,000 to $20,000 to achieve that goal, which would require the economy to double. Mathematically, this cannot be achieved with 4 percent annual GDP growth.
Although the GDP data has not been released, it was clear from his speech that growing the Chinese economy is still a priority. Xi also reiterated his commitment to opposing “external attempts to suppress and contain” China, which generally means taking Taiwan and opposing the United States. He also pledged to continue the fight against COVID-19.
Given China’s current financial predicament, there seems to be nothing Xi can do to save the economy. After nearly three years of lockdowns and testing, he has not defeated COVID. He is taking a stronger stance on opposing the United States, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had the foreseen consequence of strengthening America’s relationships with its allies. In the end, the only goal Xi could possibly achieve in the near future would be an invasion of Taiwan. And according to Biden, it is possible that the United States would defend the island nation.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
