The Undecided Actor: Forecasting Trump’s Next Move on Iran

Diplomacy under coercive pressure—brinkmanship, triggers, and the path to a strike.
The Undecided Actor: Forecasting Trump’s Next Move on Iran
The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford departs Souda Bay on the island of Crete on Feb. 26, 2026. Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images
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Commentary

Over the past several days, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have wrapped up what mediators described as one of the most serious and intense rounds of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva to date. The discussions did not collapse, and both sides agreed to resume them soon, with technical follow-ups expected in Vienna.

Tamuz Itai
Tamuz Itai
Author
Tamuz Itai is a journalist and columnist who lives in Tel Aviv, Israel.