The Two Ingredients Needed for Maduro’s Fall

Exit strategy depends on regional coordination

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (R) and Vicepresident Tareck El Aissami greet supporters before the ceremony where Maduro gave a speech reviewing his year in office at the Supreme Court of Justice in Caracas on Jan. 15, 2017. JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images

Those who follow events in Venezuela have been wondering for months how long the socialist regime of Nicolás Maduro can last and how much worse the economic and social crisis can get. Many experts predicted that the Maduro regime would fall in a matter of months.

I previously suggested that the end would come only if two conditions were met. First, the exit costs for Maduro, his inner circle, and the highest-ranking military officers—who are neck deep  in the international drug trade—would need to be settled peacefully through outside mediation. Second, the political opposition would have to create a unified front to provide a semblance of the government that would replace the Maduro regime.