The IMF’s Asia Forecast Misses a Lot 

The IMF’s Asia Forecast Misses a Lot 
China's budget deficit for the first three quarters of 2022 is 7.16 trillion yuan, or about US$980 billion. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images
|Updated:
0:00
Commentary

New projections on Asian growth from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) paint a bright picture—too bright, in fact. The organization relies on the positive effects of China’s reopening to forecast not only rapid real growth for China but also for other Asian economies, including India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mongolia. Though there can be little doubt that China’s reopening will act as a spur to growth throughout the region, the upbeat IMF forecast seems to dismiss the ill effects of inflation and fails entirely to consider the drag on Chinese and Asian exports from tight monetary policies in the West.

Milton Ezrati
Milton Ezrati
Author
Milton Ezrati is a contributing editor at The National Interest, an affiliate of the Center for the Study of Human Capital at the University at Buffalo (SUNY), and chief economist for Vested, a New York-based communications firm. Before joining Vested, he served as chief market strategist and economist for Lord, Abbett & Co. He also writes frequently for City Journal and blogs regularly for Forbes. His latest book is "Thirty Tomorrows: The Next Three Decades of Globalization, Demographics, and How We Will Live."
Related Topics