The Great Unraveling of American Power

The United States Navy amphibious assault ship USS Bataan travels through the Red Sea on Aug. 8, 2023. (Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Riley Gasdia/U.S. Navy, via AP)

Commentary

As the war between Israel and Hamas continues, Iran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen are attacking European merchant ships in the Red Sea with drones and missiles. Damage has been minimal but enough to alter the longstanding notion of free and secure shipping lanes that have been the postwar-era norm. At the same time, Iran has declared its “dominance” over the Red Sea.

The message that Tehran wants the region and the world at large to understand is that the era of U.S. dominance of the seas is over.

To be clear, the Houthis are a radical Shiite Islamic Iranian proxy force based in Yemen. Over the past several years, they’ve been attacking Saudi Arabia with drones and missile attacks in an attempt to destabilize the country, which isn’t only a Sunni Islamic country, as opposed to Iran’s Shiite Islamic rule, but is also an ally to both the United States and Israel.

Disrupting Global Trade Is Too Easy

So far, the Houthis have been targeting all ships routing to Israel through the Red Sea with drones and missiles. They’ve hit some with missiles but with relatively minimal damage. The damage to global trade, however, is significant and growing. Danish shipping company Maersk has ceased all operations in the Red Sea because of the risk that Houthi attacks pose to their crews.

This has added a risk premium to shipping, which translates to higher prices, slower delivery times, and likely fewer goods in global supply chains. In short, by disrupting Red Sea shipping routes, which carry goods back and forth among Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, the Houthis may be causing global shortages and even recessions with cheap, easily obtained drones and missiles if they’re not stopped, but they have no intention of ceasing their attacks.

Iran’s Goals Are to Decrease Global Trade, Invalidate US Power and Prestige

This is part of the Iranian regime’s goals, of course, which are many and dangerous. The mullahs in Tehran are more than happy to disrupt the global supply chains and Western economies and punish nations dealing with Israel. They’re also happy to make Western governments pay a price for supporting Israel in any shape or form.

In fact, they would like to see the economic costs of disrupting shipping diminish the West’s support for Israel. That’s already occurring in some areas. What’s more, Tehran would like to widen the war—in particular, increase the participation of other Islamic nations.

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At the same time, Tehran would like to see the attacks on shipping entice the United States and other Western nations into escalating the war, which appears to be unfolding as British naval forces converge in the Red Sea area. This is in contrast to the Biden administration’s desire to de-escalate the war, even as it asks for help from other nations.

To add fuel to the Red Sea shipping fire, Iran has recently claimed “dominance” over the Red Sea—a deliberate and provocative position to take designed to shatter the status quo of U.S. naval preeminence in the region. So far, the United States has failed to stop the Houthi attacks on shipping, which is leading to a decrease in U.S. prestige in the region, another goal of Iranian military planners.

US Goals Are Conflicting and Confused

As far as the United States is concerned, the Biden administration is sending conflicting messages to its allies, much to the joy of Iran. For example, the United States wants to de-escalate the Israel–Hamas war, but, at the same time, continues to support Israel with a U.S. naval presence and arms. It also would like to avoid provoking the Islamic nations in the region, including Turkey, and restabilize supply chains as quickly as possible, all while avoiding war with Iran.

These objectives are at odds with the realities on the ground. Though willing to bend on a brief ceasefire, Israel knows that it’s on its own to defeat Hamas, as the Biden administration mouths support in the same sentence that it chastises it for its intense military operations. The United States’ policy of pushing de-escalation while Hamas remains willing and able to wage war is a nonstarter as well and will only make the United States look less relevant than it has already become under the current administration.

Theoretically, at some point, the United States is also interested in getting American hostages back from Hamas.

Meanwhile, Iran’s influence in the region is expanding through its proxies in Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza, Yemen, and elsewhere. Its ability to attack Israel from the south, north, and west and disrupt shipping without lifting a finger needs no elaboration. Any U.S. action against an Iranian proxy could escalate the war.

So far, a U.S. warship shooting down a few Houthi drones and missiles hasn’t led to an escalation, but it hasn’t restored the security of Red Sea shipping lanes, either, which is what the U.S. Navy has been doing around the world since the end of World War II. If nothing else, the shipping attacks have made the point that the U.S.-led world order isn’t what it used to be.

Finally, maintaining good relations with Turkey, a NATO ally (at least on paper), is becoming more difficult for the United States, especially with Ankara’s closer ties with Tehran.

US Lacks a Plan or the Will to Enforce Its Hegemony

Achieving all of those goals would require a deft foreign policy hand and a sophisticated strategy of engagement, reward, and deterrence, backed by a widespread fear and respect for U.S. military power and unquestionable U.S. resolve. Unfortunately, with a legacy of cataclysmic failure in Afghanistan, its failure to deter Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, and an aged figurehead of a leader more concerned with a “woke” military than a lethal one and up to his neck in scandals, the Biden administration will find its goals virtually impossible to realize.

In essence, the administration is ill-prepared to articulate its overarching strategy other than a two-state solution that’s a nonstarter while Hamas exists. It can’t pursue such a policy by telling Israel to use restraint in its fight for survival and leave Hamas intact. On the world stage, it seems evident that the Biden administration wishes to maintain U.S. status as a global hegemon but doesn’t have the wisdom to lead or the will to fight for it.

Worst of all, everybody knows it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.