The Geopolitical and Market Risks of Afghanistan’s Fall: More China Conflict

U.S. soldiers, assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division, arrive to provide security in support of Operation Allies Refuge at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Aug. 20, 2021. Senior Airman Taylor Crul/U.S. Air Force/Handout via Reuters

Commentary

The attack on 9/11 that killed almost 3,000 people in New York was a surprise to U.S. intelligence. Likewise, the rapid fall of Afghanistan over the last weeks has been a surprise, to the point where the United States and G7 allies, who meet Tuesday to discuss Afghanistan, are dependent upon Chinese, Russian, and Taliban largesse in order to continue Kabul’s evacuation. Surprise and dependency, in war as elsewhere, leads to failure.