As tariffs between the United States and China skyrocketed—Washington raised duties to 145 percent and Beijing retaliated with 125 percent—the trade war entered an unprecedented second stage. This high-stakes standoff is not merely about economics; it challenges the resilience of both political systems and has significant global implications.
However, these viewpoints only scratch the surface of Chinese society, failing to recognize the significant impact the regime is facing due to the ongoing trade war.
First, contrary to the belief of an unshakable, deeply rooted regime, the CCP’s “stability” is an illusion.
Some Western observers argue that while U.S. President Donald Trump must answer to fickle public opinion and electoral cycles, Xi governs a regime forged by Mao Zedong and shaped by decades of centralized control. According to this logic, Beijing’s ability to endure wars, famine, political chaos, and economic shocks has proven its unique endurance.
However, this view overlooks a critical truth: The CCP’s stability over the past 70 years or so has resulted primarily from a lack of sustained external pressure rather than its internal strength.
When the Cultural Revolution pushed China to the brink of economic collapse in the 1970s, the United States stepped in—not with a containment strategy, but by normalizing relations with Beijing. By recognizing communist China and sidelining the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name), Washington effectively granted Beijing global legitimacy.
For the next 50 years, China was granted generous access to open markets, capital, and unprecedented transfers of technology and know-how. This has proved to be a significant gift that enabled the CCP not only to modernize the country but also to build the most sophisticated surveillance apparatus the world has ever seen. In contrast, the deeply impoverished North Korea illustrates how global isolation and sanctions can suffocate an authoritarian state.
Now, for the first time since President Richard Nixon’s opening up of China, Washington is reversing course. Trump’s tariffs and sanctions are designed to undermine China’s export-driven model and force foreign capital and supply chains to relocate. This will pose a fundamental challenge to the foundations of the CCP’s rule. The longer the standoff drags on, the more it erodes the economic and fiscal pillars that have sustained the regime, making its collapse a real and imminent threat, not a distant possibility.
Second, internal rifts are deepening behind the veneer of Xi’s control.
Some China watchers believe that the risk of infighting within the CCP is at its lowest since the opening and reform era, providing an advantage for Xi in his conflict with Trump.
In fact, purges within the CCP are hardly a secret to Western media. Since the sweeping crackdown on the Chinese military’s Rocket Force in late 2023, the fall of Central Military Commission member Miao Hua last year, and the recent arrest of Vice Chairman He Weidong, internal upheaval has been relentless. Yet many Western analysts view these purges as part of Xi’s new anti-corruption campaign to consolidate absolute control.
However, those with deeper insights into the Party’s inner workings hold a different view. They suggest that Xi initially purged military officers deemed disloyal to his vision of “reunification with Taiwan by force.” But by late 2024, the tables had turned. The removal of Xi’s loyalists during the CCP’s Third Plenary Session in July 2024 suggests that anti-Xi factions are gaining ground.
Why did most Western media outlets fail to report on these significant developments? It’s because they became less sensitive to Chinese politics and began to see China as a normal country after the end of the Cultural Revolution, especially when the CCP established a relatively stable mechanism for leadership transitions following the Deng Xiaoping era. Moreover, the CCP’s propaganda and united front operations have infiltrated the global stage, subtly or directly shaping the “China story,” which has deeply influenced Western media’s perception.
As Xi has dismantled the post-Deng oligarchic model in favor of personalist rule, the CCP increasingly resembles the chaotic, paranoid, and unstable regime of the Mao era. In such an environment, the regime is ill-equipped to withstand a prolonged trade war with the United States, let alone prevail.
Third, the CCP’s surveillance state is showing cracks.
Some Western analysts often marvel at China’s omnipresent AI-driven surveillance state, viewing it as the world’s most advanced domestic control system. Others even point to the swift suppression of the 2022 “White Paper” protest—a youth-led movement against the harsh COVID-19 lockdowns—as proof of the CCP’s resilience.
However, these assessments fail to recognize the growing cracks in the system. During China’s lockdowns, people were confined to their homes for extended periods. Their suffering—including food shortages and limited access to health care—resulted in growing public outrage and a swift decline in trust in the CCP.
Although the “White Paper” protests were swiftly suppressed, similar protests erupted spontaneously in numerous cities—something that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago. Xi’s abrupt reversal of the zero-COVID policy shortly thereafter was a hasty concession to the growing public pressure.
Trump’s Trade War Will Usher In a New Era
Western analysts often exaggerate the strengths of the CCP because they have only observed its surface.Trump’s trade war is not just a battle of tariffs but also a direct assault on the economic and political foundations of the Chinese regime. In this new cold war, the key to bringing down the CCP is to persistently expose the false narratives propagated by Beijing and strike at the heart of its authoritarian system.
The world is approaching a historic turning point—moving away from CCP authoritarianism and returning to universal values. I believe that Trump’s trade war could mark the beginning of this profound transformation.
