Nowruz and the Spark: Israel’s Calculated Bet on Iranian Rebellion

As Nowruz unfolds under war, Israel is laying groundwork for internal fracture, but the regime’s collapse threshold remains uncrossed.

Motorists drive along an expressway as plumes of smoke rise after a strike in Tehran, Iran, on March 5, 2026. Atta Kenare / AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

As Iranians marked Nowruz—the Persian New Year—over the past few days as the war grinds into its fourth week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a message that blended holiday wishes for Iranians with an unmistakable warning of destruction directed at the Iranian regime.