For years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), he noted, has diligently fostered the notion of China’s unstoppable ascent. By meticulously crafting and managing narratives in both state media and other platforms, the CCP portrays China as possessing unparalleled military capabilities, foresight, and strategic prowess. This perspective, according to Mr. Murphy, appears to resonate with certain factions within the United States who fear their own country’s diminishing influence.
But, he suggested, such fears are misguided. The Red Dragon is more akin to a paper dragon. It’s breathing empty fumes, not ferocious fire.
After examining 12 wargames conducted by RAND International, the U.S. Marine Corps, the U.S. Army, and other entities, the researchers came to a very different conclusion, one that is totally at odds with Mr. Murphy’s assertions. Even in the handful of war games that the United States won, victory came at a significant cost, with unimaginable levels of bloodshed and tens of thousands of lives lost.
The analysis of these military exercises carried out from 2016 to 2023 yielded numerous outcomes, including the rapid subjugation of Taiwan and a decisive victory for China. In other words, most of the outcomes favored China, not the United States. For the purpose of comparison, the military exercises were categorized into three distinct periods: pre-2017, 2017 to before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and post-February 2022. The military exercises before 2018 generally concluded positively for the United States, Taiwan, and their allies, albeit with significant losses. However, between 2018 and February 2022, the situation turned grim for the United States and Taiwan, with only one victory, four defeats, and two stalemates recorded.
The armed wing of the CCP, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has successfully benefited from studying the U.S. military’s tactics, techniques, and procedures extensively over the past two decades, according to the researchers. The thorough analysis has resulted in significant changes that challenge the previous way of war.
Numerous wargames depicted a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan, replete with multiple airborne and amphibious assaults.
In addition to hiring more qualified candidates, the study urges the USAF to acquire more advanced tactical aircraft, increase drone numbers, and bolster strategic bombers, tankers, and airlift capabilities.
Another wargame, titled “Slaughter in the East China Sea,” conducted by the Center for a New American Security, explored the aftermath of the CCP seizing one of the Senkaku Islands and Japan’s attempts to regain control. Although the United States supported Japan in the conflict, there were limitations on the rules of engagement. After escalating tensions and losses on both sides, the U.S. and Japanese forces were unable to retake the islands from Chinese control.
A second wargame, again conducted by the Center for a New American Security, produced similar outcomes. The CCP’s takeover of Taiwan’s Pratas Islands resulted in a retaliatory response led by the United States in the economic and information sectors. Despite close cooperation between Taiwan, the United States, and Japan, China was not isolated, and the CCP did not pay a heavy price. During a wargame supported by the U.S. Army in 2021, Taiwanese troops capitulated in less than a month. The PLA effectively deployed troops and equipment near Taiwan, utilizing anti-access and area denial capabilities that thwarted U.S. forces.
If this comprehensive CIMSEC study is to be believed, then Mr. Murphy’s claims appear to be more than a little misplaced. The United States, heavily distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, should not underestimate communist China’s capabilities. To do so would be foolish and extremely costly.
