Australia’s island state, Tasmania, went to the polls on Saturday, March 23, and produced a hung parliament with the Liberals set to continue in government with the assistance of a varied crossbench.
Having called the election early, Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff clearly did not want the result he was given by the Tasmanian people.
Having inherited a majority centre-right Liberal government from his predecessor Peter Gutwein, the new premier soon found himself in trouble when two of his backbenchers resigned from the governing party room to sit as independents. Despite commanding a sizeable primary vote at the last election, the vagaries of Tasmania’s peculiar electoral system (Hare-Clark) delivered a one-seat majority.
So with two resignations, the premier was left in a minority situation.
Initially, the premier thought he had a good agreement with the two defectors, Lara Alexander from the seat of Bass, and John Tucker from the seat of Lyons. However, the arrangement soon became tenuous and stability was no longer guaranteed.
With a tight fiscal position confronting the government, cost of living and health issues confronting the electors, and after 10 years in office, the Liberal government was never going to find an easy path to a fourth-term majority government.
Disaffected Voters Drawn to Alternative Party
The Liberal Party suffered a massive swing of well over 10 percent against it. Such a swing might suggest a change of government. Given the extra seats in the multi-member electorates, the required number of votes needed to be elected was significantly reduced allowing room for more small parties and independents.And it is to the smaller parties and the independents that the 10-plus percent of the electorate went to express their dissatisfaction with the government. For the other two left-leaning players, the Australian Labor Party and the Australian Greens, there was no discernible increase in their votes compared to the previous election.
The electorate was not satisfied.
Labor and the Greens were a realistic alternative, and the electorate threw their disaffected vote at the new entrants.
Several Missteps From All Parties
The difficulties the Liberals faced were the incumbency factor of 10 years, the desertion by two of its own members to the crossbench, and the increased size of the parliament reducing the quota needed to gain a seat.The Liberals kicked a few own goals commencing the campaign with the announcement of a new tax on short-stay accommodation, which was followed up with a policy allowing tenants the right to have pets.
Other policies such as announcing that a re-elected government would ban “ramping”—the expression used to describe ambulances waiting at the Emergency Department of hospitals to transfer their patients into the hospital proper—were seen as unachievable.
The question was posited, if it was so easy to ban why had it not been done in the previous 10 years?
A fair and tough question to answer.
The government was overwhelmingly regarded as being bureaucracy-driven and not sufficiently engaged with stakeholders. This is often the case with tired governments.
The influx of new members will provide a catalyst for the ministry to road-test some of their ideas. A proposed new AFL stadium played its part in determining the outcome as well. Anything visionary always needs to be attacked, especially by the Greens.
These missteps were followed up with a policy announcement last week that any parliamentarian resigning from their party would automatically lose their seat.
This dealt the two defectors back into the spotlight, which reminded the electorate of the instability emanating from the government’s own side. It also meant that the airwaves were being consumed by parliamentarians talking about themselves rather than the needs of the community.
Suffice to say the 2024 Liberal campaign will not be written up in advertising textbooks.
Even less so, will the Labor Party’s or the Greens’ be written up.
Their campaigns were so inherently weak that the weakness of the Liberals campaign was not that obvious. Indeed, Labor’s treasury spokesman made a fundamental and substantial error in his costings, leaving Labor awkwardly exposed.
Currently, the people are waiting for the ballot box’s verdict, which will be known in about a week. In the meantime, nervous candidates are awaiting the distribution of preferences from the surplus of votes held by some others.
A Renewal of the Liberal Spirit Needed
For the incoming minority government to increase its chances at the next election, there will need to be a reawakening of the Liberal spirit and philosophy, while being more stakeholder-focused.The re-engagement of staff dismissed or laid aside for refusing the COVID-19 jab needs to be addressed to overcome some real and critical staff shortages. Cost of living, rentals and hospital waiting lists all need the active attention of a can-do minister.
The election result provides the government with a refresh—backing policies that are people-focused, and not bureaucracy wish lists.
The new crossbench members having no previous experience will need plenty of time to settle in before impacting Cabinet decisions.
Time will tell how the situation plays out and whether the Liberal advertisement warning against a coalition of chaos is appropriate.
