The information is from anonymous U.S. officials, who claim that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s discovery of the faulty defense systems led to his recent purges of military officials and would delay his plans of a military takeover of Taiwan.
“The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing intelligence,” the Bloomberg report reads.
“The US assessments cited several examples of the impact of graft, including missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively, one of the people said.”
The sources are familiar with U.S. assessments on the matter, according to Bloomberg.
“The US assesses that corruption within the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] has led to an erosion of confidence in its overall capabilities, particularly when it comes to the Rocket Force, and also set back some of Xi’s top modernization priorities, the people said,” the media outlet stated.
The dysfunction of China’s nuclear missiles, at least, is unlikely to be Chinese disinformation as the entire point of its nuclear arsenal is to deter and compel, both of which require the perception of functionality on the part of adversaries. That doesn’t mean the information couldn’t be disinformation by another nation.
Widespread and debilitating corruption in China’s military would relieve some pressure on the U.S. military, freeing it to shift resources to ongoing hot conflicts with Russia and Iran. We want to believe that the PLA is weaker than we thought. But that’s why we should be particularly cautious about the latest revelations, which are humiliating to Xi, both domestically and internationally. Even before the problem is fixed, he could respond by attempting to prove the power of the PLA in other ways and sooner than expected.
The PLAN routinely harasses the U.S. Navy by shadowing its ships and reconnaissance planes at dangerously close distances. Vietnam and the Philippines have borne the brunt of it, including military-grade lasers, water cannons, and ramming that resulted in sunk fishing boats.
The critical questions are: How far does corruption and the resulting dysfunction in the PLA really extend, for how long will it last, and to what extent has it really compromised the organization’s military readiness? Can the U.S. military trust enough in the intelligence and the sacking of more than a dozen military leaders from multiple services to conclude that China’s military can not only not take Taiwan in the near future but also knows that it can’t take Taiwan? The second element is critical, as even a militarily weak dictator could start a devastating war if he doesn’t know his weakness. Former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is a recent example.
When it comes to dictators such as Xi, the tried and true guidelines remain. Expect the unexpected, don’t give an inch, and never let down one’s guard.
