Iranian Leaders Face Growing Vulnerability Following Decapitation Strikes

Members of the Iranian community and supporters hold signs and pre-regime Iranian flags during a "Solidarity with the People of Iran" event in Los Angeles on Jan. 18, 2026. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

Commentary

The killing of many key militant Shiite leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei, is a major blow to the Islamist supremacist mindset that is central to the Khomeinist brand of Shiite Islam currently ruling Iran, and the successful targeting of so many senior Islamist leaders does damage their credibility as having God’s favor, making the regime more vulnerable. But is the loss of key leaders and credibility enough to bring about regime change?

Some Context

The activist Shiite Khomeinists who hold power in Iran make up a minority of the overall population, but it is a sizable minority of some 10 to 15 million, made up of Muslims who embrace a militant Islamist supremacist ideology that makes them a formidable force. So the question is: Does the majority of 75 million or so, which is more moderate overall, have the will to confront activist Shiite Khomeinists who are out in the streets by the hundreds of thousands in support of the current regime? In other words, being willing to state on a survey that you don’t support the current regime is a whole lot different than going up against hundreds of thousands of screaming, worked-up regime supporters whose worldview has been directly and powerfully challenged by successful decapitation strikes on the leaders they believe to be infallible and fully backed up and empowered by Allah. Sure, these protests are regime-organized, but the people participating in them are not just going to disappear if anti-regime protesters show up.