Commentary
India, a rising power with enormous geopolitical weight, maintains a strategic posture that raises intriguing questions. The nation is a member of the Quad alliance alongside the United States, Japan, and Australia, while also playing a key role in BRICS with China and Russia, two of the United States’ primary adversaries. India maintains strong partnerships with Russia for arms, Iran for energy, and Israel for defense technology.
Can India sustain these seemingly conflicting relationships? More importantly, what serves its best long-term interests?
The Strategic Autonomy Doctrine: History and Context
To understand India’s current strategic posture, we must examine its doctrine of strategic autonomy, rooted in its history and identity as an independent nation.- Post-independence and nonalignment: After gaining independence from British colonial rule in 1947, India, under Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru (1947–1964), adopted a policy of “non-alignment.” During the Cold War, India resisted aligning with either the U.S.-led Western bloc or the Soviet Union, prioritizing its independence and national interests. The Non-Aligned Movement embodied this stance.
- Lean toward the Soviet Union: Despite official nonalignment, India gravitated toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War, especially after the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace and Friendship. Strategic and defense needs largely drove this relationship, as the United States had aligned with Pakistan and China under President Nixon. India’s inclination toward socialism and centralization also played a role.
- Post-Cold War adjustments: The Soviet Union’s collapse forced India to recalibrate its approach. Economic reforms in 1991 opened India to globalization, bringing it closer to the West while maintaining its ties with Russia. Strategic autonomy remains central to India’s foreign policy today.
Geopolitical Relationships and Challenges
India’s balancing act requires understanding its key strategic relationships:- The United States and the Quad: The Quad—India, the United States, Japan, and Australia—is often described as an Indo-Pacific counterweight to China’s growing influence. India benefits from U.S. technological, military, and economic support. Joint naval exercises and defense agreements such as COMCASA and BECA strengthen ties. In 2023, the United States was India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $100 billion. India exported $63.36 billion worth of goods to the United States, achieving a trade surplus of more than $26 billion. Strengthening these alliances helps India counterbalance China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and on its borders.
- Israel: India’s growing partnership with Israel focuses on defense technology, cybersecurity, and agriculture. Over the past decade, India has purchased $2.9 billion worth of military hardware from Israel, including drones and missile defense systems.
- BRICS: India’s role in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) offers a platform among emerging economies. However, China’s dominance complicates India’s position, particularly given ongoing border tensions.
- Russia: Russia remains India’s largest defense supplier. Despite U.S. sanctions and geopolitical pressure, India continues to procure Russian weapons, including S-400 missile systems. In December 2024, Russia’s state-owned oil company Rosneft agreed to supply 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily for 10 years to India’s Reliance Industries. This $13 billion annual deal underscores India’s reliance on Russian energy amid Western sanctions on Moscow. However, this balancing act faces challenges as the United States considers sanctions targeting Russian oil buyers.
- Iran: India’s relationship with Iran centers on energy security and access to Central Asia. The Chabahar port project exemplifies India’s strategy to bypass Pakistan and counter China’s influence. Despite U.S. sanctions, bilateral trade between India and Iran reached approximately $1.8 billion in 2023. However, India’s cessation of most oil imports from Iran after 2019 highlights the limitations imposed by U.S. pressures.
- China: India’s relationship with China is marked by rivalry and economic interdependence. Border tensions in Ladakh and militarization in the Himalayas underscore mutual distrust, even as bilateral trade surpasses $100 billion annually. China’s control over Tibet’s rivers gives it leverage over downstream nations, including India. Scholar Brahma Chellaney has highlighted how China’s dam building and river diversion threaten India’s water security.
- Pakistan: India’s volatile relationship with Pakistan remains a critical challenge, driven by disputes over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. Pakistan’s close ties with China exacerbate the dual-front challenges that India faces.
As geostrategist Brahma Chellaney warns, India cannot avoid hard choices forever. China’s growing assertiveness—from controlling water resources to its actions in Taiwan—will test India’s doctrine of strategic autonomy.
India’s leadership faces a critical question: Can it continue to walk the middle road, or must it choose a side? As Mr. Miyagi famously said to his student in “The Karate Kid”: “Daniel-san, must talk. Walk on road, hmm? Walk left side, safe. Walk right side, safe. Walk middle, sooner or later get squished, just like grape.”
India’s path in the coming years will be pivotal for its future and for the global balance of power.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
