How Will Banks Survive the Commercial Real Estate Meltdown?

Almost $1 trillion of CRE mortgages must be paid down, refinanced, or extended by the end of 2024—the smart money is already running for the exits.

Office buildings, which make up the heart of midtown Manhattan, N.Y., stand largely empty, on March 4, 2021. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Commentary

The commercial real estate (CRE) market has been balancing on the threshold of a major readjustment since 2021. That’s when the first of the extremely low interest rate, three-year loans were becoming due.

How Long Can Banks Hold Underwater Loans?

So far, the banks’ main solution to that problem has been to kick the can down the road a bit by extending maturing loans at the same low interest rates for another three years and hoping that interest rates fall.