Forecasting This Year’s Midterm House Election

Voters cast their ballot in the midterm election at the Brooklyn Museum polling station in New York on Nov. 6, 2018. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

We recently completed a study, “A Model to Forecast Midterm House Election,” that has been published in Social Science Research Network. This study identified the major socio-economic and political factors that determine the swing of seats by political party during midterm elections for the House of Representatives.