Commentary
In February, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas decreed that he would end his government’s “pay-to-slay” program in which the PA transfers reward money to Palestinian terrorists and their families. The PA invited the Trump administration to come to the West Bank in June to verify firsthand the PA’s elimination of the program. It is now past June, but the United States still has an opportunity to ensure that pay-to-slay is eliminated once and for all, setting the Palestinian government on a path toward a sustainable peace with Israel.
The so-called Martyrs Fund was created in 2004 to compensate Palestinians who committed acts of terrorism against the State of Israel, and either died or were imprisoned as a result. The payments increase with the extremity of the violence, with terrorists and their families earning thousands of dollars, free health care, and guaranteed government jobs. Pay-to-slay consumes 8 percent of the PA’s total budget at a cost of $300 million annually—wasting money at a moment when the donor-driven PA budget suffers from a 172 percent deficit.
However, the pay-to-slay program remains exceedingly popular, with a more than 90 percent approval rating among the Palestinian public at a moment when Abbas’s own approval rating has hit rock bottom, at 15 percent. Some may wonder why Abbas—an 89-year-old autocrat in the 20th year of a four-year term—would choose to take this seismic political risk by ending such a popular program, but his motives are clear: Abbas is desperate to propitiate the Trump administration, angling for a PA role in the postwar Gaza Strip.
So will the PA really end its martyrs slush fund and come into compliance with the U.S. law that demands a verifiable cessation of what amounts to sponsorship of terrorism? Perhaps. In March, the PA removed 1,600 people from the pay-to-slay payroll. And in April, Abbas’s right-hand man, PA Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh, sent multiple letters to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio requesting that he send U.S. inspectors after June 1 to verify PA termination of the program. Then again, perhaps not.
In reality, the end of pay-to-slay is largely illusory, a feint by Abbas that would simply transfer payments to another entity, the Palestinian National Foundation for Economic Empowerment. Israel asserts that this would be a shell organization, with its leadership handpicked by Abbas. In addition, Abbas backtracked on his decree in an Arabic-language speech not long after his initial pronouncement, saying the PA would continue its martyr payments even if it had “only 1 cent left.”
So what’s Abbas’s theory? President Donald Trump wants the war between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas to end. In turn, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Hamas will not be replaced by Fatah, Abbas’s ruling party. Given Netanyahu’s vehement opposition, why would Abbas bother with his pay-to-slay play? Because Abbas believes that he has a shot at ingratiating himself with Trump—perhaps enough to persuade the president to pressure the Israeli government into acquiescence. Nor is this the long shot some may suggest: There are few takers for a Gaza war day-after scenario; other than the PA, it’s not clear what plan B would be.
Abbas understands that Trump hopes to broker Israeli–Saudi normalization, a capstone to his first term’s Abraham Accords. But the road to normalization runs through ending the war in the Gaza Strip. Since Oct. 7, 2023, the Saudis have been explicit that normalization with Israel will only happen once the conflict in the Gaza Strip winds down. And Saudi Arabia—along with Abraham Accords states Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates—are pushing for the PA to replace Hamas and govern the Gaza Strip once the war is concluded.
Given the nature of the Arab–Israeli conflict and the failure of the PA to meet not only U.S. demands, but also the simplest requisites of good governance, is there any reason for hope this time around? The most direct course is for the United States to call Abbas’s bluff. The PA president has sent repeated letters to Trump assuring him that the PA is ready to govern the Gaza Strip. A termination of pay-to-slay, verified by the Trump administration, could reassure the world that Ramallah is serious about reforms it has long been reluctant to undertake.
From RealClearWire