Pollsters, stock pickers, and political prognosticators have been spectacularly wrong in their predictions in the recent past—so frequently that doing so has become the norm. Their overreliance on historical performance to attempt to predict the future has often proven to be fallacious.
Twenty years ago they might have been justified in presuming that what happened in the past will prove to be an accurate guide about what may happen in the future, but in the era of paradigm shifts and serial disruption—that has changed. Historical performance no longer serves as an accurate guidepost to the future in a whole host of areas.
