Critics Predicted a Brussels–Beijing Pivot, but the Opposite Happened

With the EU and China at odds over trade and China’s support for Russia, the new U.S.–EU trade deal reflects an ongoing realignment.

President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after their meeting in Turnberry, Scotland, on July 27, 2025. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

When the Trump administration introduced tariffs on China and began renegotiating trade terms with the European Union, many predicted a transatlantic fracture. Analysts across institutions warned that the pressure campaign would push Europe into Beijing’s sphere of influence. But the reality that has unfolded in 2025 suggests a different trajectory entirely.