The 2025 election was nothing less than a catastrophe for the New Democratic Party. Having only won seven seats in the House of Commons, the party is at its lowest level of support since its creation in 1961. Even the NDP’s precursor, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, never had so few seats since its founding in 1931.
There is also speculation that Prime Minister Mark Carney may coax a few of those seven MPs to join the Liberals to form a majority government. Such a development would leave the already reeling NDP dejected and decimated.
So, is the NDP finished? Should the party just pack it in?
The answer to both questions is no.
Despite garnering so few votes in 2025, the NDP maintains a loyal base of support that isn’t going away. The party has had ups and downs over the decades, but has never disappeared as it provides a home for those in the labour movement who don’t feel comfortable with the mainstream parties. Many NDP supporters chose to vote strategically for the Liberals in the election to keep the Conservatives from power, but their loyalty still lies with the New Democrats.
Canada’s Parliament functions best when numerous parties are providing perspectives. It’s a debate-driven type of legislature that places value on opposition parties. The most fiscally conservative federal government in living memory was under the Chrétien Liberals. That was because they had the Reform Party breathing down their necks in opposition and driving the agenda. Even though the Reform Party could never form the government, it had a strong influence on it. Likewise, the Bloc Québécois exerts leverage on government policies. Without the NDP effectively speaking for their cause, the government loses some balance.
Leaderless and broke, the NDP now has its work cut out for it in rebuilding itself. The party must regroup, hold a leadership race, and most importantly, establish who it wants to be. While the NDP has consistently remained on the left side of the political spectrum, it has splintered some of its support base by trying to wear multiple hats.
Is it a social justice machine focused on issues such as trans rights? That stance doesn’t always sit well with the blue-collar trade unionists who traditionally supported the NDP. In fact, the Conservative Party made some strong gains with trade unions and gained some endorsements from them in the election.
Public service unions still tend to be in opposition to the Conservatives, but many of them threw their support behind the Liberals in the election.
If the NDP wants to return to its organized labour roots, it must try to find a balance and reconcile between the trade unions in the public sector unions. The trade unions are typically in the private sector, and they are concerned about the cost of living, the economy, and pressures due to mass immigration. The public sector unions tend to be more concerned about social justice issues and incorporating DEI policies into workplaces. If they elect a leader with strong, organized labour ties, they could work toward owning that electoral niche again.
The party must go back to its roots. Much of the party’s demise in the last few years can be attributed to Jagmeet Singh’s close relationship and association with the Trudeau Liberals. While Singh’s strategy was pragmatic and got some policy initiatives such as dental and daycare plans implemented, it blurred the definitions between the NDP and Liberals. Supporters began asking themselves why it was worth supporting the NDP if the party was just going to support the Liberals in every vote of consequence.
Along with finding its identity and distinguishing itself from the other parties, the NDP leadership must take a strategic approach to its electability. If they aren’t chasing the centre, they can target the strongly blue-collar ridings in the country where it’s more likely they can increase their seat count.
The NDP can’t afford to wait and hope another Jack Layton will emerge and bring about a new “orange wave” of support across Canada. It has to return to the basics and do the grunt work of building up support, one town hall meeting and union hall at a time, across the country. Electing a leader with a tactical bent may be more effective than selecting one with a flashy approach.
The party won’t die, but its future is in flux. Whoever the members select as their next leader will determine if the party will be in a stage of regrowth or stagnation in the next election cycle.
A federal NDP government will never happen, and it would be an economic disaster if it ever did. However, its supporters can make the case for its continued existence to serve their interests in the House of Commons.
Perhaps the electoral humbling the NDP just took is exactly what it needed.
