Cory Morgan: Ottawa’s 2035 EV Target Will Be a Costly Policy Failure

A charging port is seen on a Mercedes Benz EQC 400 4Matic electric vehicle at the Canadian International AutoShow in Toronto on Feb. 13, 2019. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault’s plan to illegalize the sale of new conventional vehicles in Canada by 2035 is unreasonable, extreme, and will wreak havoc on the Canadian economy.

Despite nearly 10 years of cajoling, promoting, and subsidizing electric vehicles (EVs), over 95 percent of vehicle sales in Canada are still combustion engine models. EVs remain too expensive and impractical for Canadians to embrace. Rather than trying to understand why citizens won’t switch to EVs, the Canadian government is taking the ham-handed approach of forcing the transition, and the consequences of the move will be dire.

Vehicle ownership and manufacturing are a huge part of the Canadian economy. For most people, the purchase of a vehicle is the second-largest single investment of their lives, after that of buying a home. Statistics Canada reported that of the 26.3 million vehicles registered in Canada in 2022, just over 24 million were light-duty, and only 3 percent (around 723,500) of those were EVs.

Total sales of vehicles in Canada amounted to $81.3 billion in 2022. Tossing a wrench into such a large and important component of the economy is irresponsible and dangerous, yet that’s exactly what the federal government is doing.

Banning the sale of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035 was a notion initially pushed by the European Union in 2022. Economic reality struck quickly though, as Germany refused to implement the ban and the policy has now become aspirational at best. Rather than learning from the failure of Europe’s overly aggressive policy on EVs, Canada is trying to emulate it. Canada’s attempt to illegalize conventional vehicle sales by 2035 will fail too.

South of the border, auto manufacturers are backing off from zealous EV targets they had initially embraced. In the United States, EV inventories have increased by 506 percent from a year ago, and EVs are starting to clog up the lots of auto dealers. Despite massive subsidies, Americans still aren’t buying EVs. In response, Ford has put on hold some $12 billion in planned EV investment, while other manufacturers are reconsidering their plans. They can’t keep making vehicles that people won’t buy.

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The problem becomes more acute in Canada, where long-range battery reliability in cold conditions keeps most consumers from buying EVs. Canadian cities are far apart and people travelling between them don’t want to commit hours to constantly recharging their cars. Seeing the failure of electric buses purchased at great expense in cities like Edmonton doesn’t inspire citizens to jump on the bandwagon either.

Aside from the issues of cost, range, and reliability of EV, the lack of charging infrastructure poses another challenge. Charging stations are few and far between and are expensive to build. Home upgrades for vehicle charging are expensive, while housing itself is already becoming unaffordable to an increasing number of people. Apartment dwellers who rely on street parking may never have practical vehicle-charging options.

Let’s assume that through strength of will, massive subsidies, and a stroke of incredible luck, Canadians have somehow managed to move to 100 percent EV sales by 2035. The next question to ask will be where all the power will be coming from.

Canada’s electric grid is already pressured to the maximum in most regions. Electric bills are skyrocketing, and fears of brownouts or blackouts during cold snaps or heat waves are growing. What will happen when tens of millions of EVs are suddenly added to the mix?

Canada will need to double or even triple its electric capacity to meet emissions-reduction targets by 2050. Where is this power going to come from?

Hydroelectric projects can take decades to build, if and when they manage to get approved in Canada. There aren’t many new ones under construction right now, and not every region can generate power with them. No large nuclear facilities are being constructed, coal generation is being phased out, and the federal government is trying to shut down natural gas generation. Wind and solar don’t even begin to make up for the loss of power from the shutdown of conventional sources of electricity.

Guilbeault’s plans are impossible to meet.

Somebody will eventually reverse the planned ban on conventional vehicles, but damage will have already been done. With reduced supply, the cost of conventional vehicles will skyrocket, as Canada will have to increase imports. Meanwhile, the cost of powering homes and businesses will have risen during the attempted transition, which will contribute to continued the price inflation of all consumer products.

The plan to illegalize conventional vehicles in Canada could be the most expensive policy failure in Canadian history, and there doesn’t appear to be any way to stop it in the short term.

Buckle in, folks.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.