Commentary
As the war turned in favor of the ethnic resistance armies, China claims to have brokered a temporary ceasefire in Burma (also known as Myanmar).
For the first time in the more than 70 years that the war in Burma has been raging, the country’s ethnic resistance armies are gaining ground, and it looks like victory may be possible. The fact that China is now calling for peace talks suggests Beijing is losing faith in the military junta’s ability to win.
The war has been a slow, smoldering conflict for decades, punctuated by brief periods of intense fighting. But in late October, multiple ethnic resistance armies launched a coordinated offensive code-named Operation 1027. One by one, Tatmadaw (Burmese military government) outposts began falling as the ethnic alliances gained ground, particularly in the northern Shan State, which borders Thailand and China’s Yunnan Province.
At first, Beijing had urged the Tatmadaw to clear the rebels from areas that most threatened China’s various investment projects. But the resistance fighters continued to win victories, and other ethnic groups joined the alliance, fighting to restore a democratic government in Burma. As a Tatmadaw victory becomes less certain, Beijing is more willing to engage with the resistance.
In a face-to-face interview, David Eubank, founder of the Free Burma Rangers, a faith-based aid group that works deep in the jungles of Burma, said that the regime’s cruelty is the worst he has seen in 20 years.
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“They are intentionally targeting schools, hospitals, and churches, as well as large concentrations of internally displaced people,” Mr. Eubank said.
“The main forces of resistance against the Tatmadaw are the ethnic armed groups, which are now stronger than they have ever been,” he said, explaining that the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), recently formed militia units, are a new threat to the Tatmadaw.
The PDFs are bringing hope that a democratic government can be reinstated. By Mr. Eubank’s estimate, at least half of PDF units directly support the National Unity Government (NUG), the government in exile.
The outlook is better now than before, yet the war is far from over.
“The NUG has trouble getting weapons and getting them in. Most of the weapons you see on the battlefield are very old, Vietnam-era, then homemade shotguns and 22s,” Mr. Eubank said.
There are also “knock-off, hybrid, fake M16s that look like a mix of real barrels and airsoft weapons made of plastic,” he said.
Ironically, many of the cheapest weapons are made in China. “They might fire 100 rounds or 1,000,” he said, attesting to their unreliability. But “at a glance, they look real.”
In Mr. Eubank’s estimation, the ethnic resistance appears much stronger than they are. By contrast, China and Russia have provided the Tatmadaw with modern weapons, including helicopters, airplanes, and artillery.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a strong economic interest in Burma, securing minerals, raw materials, forest products, and energy. China would prefer the Tatmadaw regain control of the country so that Chinese investments can move forward. Generally, the CCP does not like dealing with democracies but prefers democracy to chaos.
Sai Leng, a 72-year-old who spent decades fighting against the Tatmadaw before becoming headman of a refugee camp, said: “We want a real democratic and federal system, like America. However, we need to work together with China because we are very close to China.”
Mr. Sai felt that the National Unity Government should send a message to Beijing saying that, even after democracy is restored, Burma will continue to trade with China. He also made the point that, during the 2015 to 2020 period of democratic rule, China remained Burma’s top trade and investment partner.
Democracy and freedom for the people need not exclude trade with China. If China can be reassured that investments will be safe, it is unlikely to take a more active role in the war.
The Kokang Self-Administered Zone, home to the ethnic Kokang people, has close ties with China. It borders on China, the people speak Mandarin and use Chinese currency, and have a large army with modern weapons that so far has aligned with the Tatmadaw.
Another powerful ethnic group is the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which also speaks Chinese and uses Chinese currency. Because of their business ties with China, the Wa have an official ceasefire with the government, although they sell weapons to the ethnic resistance armies.
There is fear that if the CCP decides it needs the Tatmadaw to win, it may influence either or both of these armies to actively join the fight on the government side. Consequently, Beijing or the UWSA could be the tipping points that decide which way the war goes.
Mr. Sai stressed that the United States could play a larger role, saying: “The National Unity Government is not very strong till now. However, they try very hard. And some have good connections with members of Congress.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has been a major supporter of Burma and the Burma Act, which provides non-lethal assistance to ethnic resistance groups.
But to win the war, those groups need arms. Mr. Eubank explained: “There is no large-scale arming of ethnics with modern weapons. The leadership is aware of the support being given to Ukraine. They’re upset that we pump tens of billions into Ukraine. They say, ‘Send us a billion, or even a million, or just 1,000 AK-47 assault rifles, or some of those weapons you left in Afghanistan or Syria.’”
So far, military aid from the United States remains a dream of the ethnic resistance armies. China’s involvement, however, is a reality.
China’s ceasefire is intended to be temporary, confined solely to the northern Shan State. The negotiations failed to address the root causes of the conflict, making it unlikely to endure. Even if Beijing manages to persuade some of the other armies to stand down or extend the ceasefire, there is no guarantee that peace will prevail, given the involvement of numerous armed factions, with some expected to persist in fighting.
It is improbable that China would deploy troops on the ground because they would likely become entangled in an unending guerrilla war, disrupting Chinese economic interests. If China does nothing, the rebels have a shot at winning. However, according to Mr. Eubank, it will take a long time, during which civilians would suffer.
No Western country, including the United States, seems to have a plan to intervene militarily. So, for the time being, the war will grind on.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
