In Canada, when we speak of threats posed by foreign adversaries, the term FIMI—Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference—usually comes up, with most reference points drawn from the 2019 and 2021 elections. For Taiwan, however, the threats from China are across the board and can appear in virtual and real spaces every day. In a nutshell, they are far more multi-faceted and all-encompassing.
When it comes to the Chinese threat to Taiwan, most Canadians will probably associate it with China’s sabre-rattling and military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Indeed, the number of increasing naval and air force intrusions into areas near Taiwan has greatly increased in the past few years. Meanwhile we have seen a steady rise of air sorties crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, aiming to change the status quo and to pose greater threats. These military exercises are launched with such frequency and growing intensity that, according to Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, they are no longer seen as mere exercises but “rehearsals” for a forced unification.
Fortunately, there is growing international pushback against China’s military and diplomatic pressures on Taiwan—including from Canada. To begin with, Canada’s One-China policy only takes note of China’s position on Taiwan but does not recognize it. Over the years, Canada’s support has also taken tangible form. The peaceful transits through the Taiwan Strait—such as the HMCS Ottawa’s most recent passage on Feb. 16 this year—are powerful signals of deterrence.
Last month, when China staged large-scale military drills around Taiwan, Global Affairs Canada took to social media to express deep concern. A few days later, the G7 foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling China’s provocative actions a direct risk to global security and prosperity.
For all these developments, Taiwan is truly grateful. We know that Canada has many pressing global commitments—especially the ongoing support for Ukraine—and so we do not take its support for us for granted. It is deeply meaningful that Canada continues to voice support for Taiwan in multilateral settings.
But to ensure all these deterrence efforts are not in vain, we must now look beyond the traditional threats. A new era of confrontation is here—one that leans heavily on grey-zone tactics and hybrid warfare. These are attacks that fall below the threshold of armed conflicts but cause lasting damage to democratic institutions and public trust. I group them into three categories, the so-called “Three Warfares": lawfare, cognitive warfare, and media warfare.
These non-military tactics are an important part of a broader strategy to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty, influence public opinions, and create conditions leading to eventual unification with China. In essence, they aim to exert pressure on Taiwan through a variety of means, targeting both domestic and international audiences.
These points are gaining traction globally, and as China’s lawfare campaign is increasingly exposed, its attempt to legitimize aggression against Taiwan is becoming harder to sustain.
Cognitive warfare and media warfare are closely intertwined. One uses the human mind as the battlefield and the other media, including social media. With disinformation, rumours, and fake news, they aim to distort public perception, erode confidence in Taiwan’s government, and divide our society. These are not seasonal campaigns—they happen every day. Everyone is a target. In Canada, such tactics are more commonly seen around election cycles, and it is often the Chinese diaspora community that bears the brunt, but with the rise of AI-generated content, China’s influence operations can increasingly target the broader Canadian public, and with higher frequency.
So, if there’s any immediate lesson Taiwan can offer to Canada, it is to stay vigilant. Also, it is important to be aware of the challenges Taiwan faces on the front lines of authoritarian expansionism—militarily, diplomatically, legally, and psychologically.
Now, if you wonder China’s possible timeline for an invasion, I think war remains their last resort. Despite that the chance of China invading Taiwan has risen dramatically in recent years, China knows an invasion is too risky and it may unleash domestic instability and social unrest. So China still claims that they hope to achieve unification through “peaceful means.” This is why its campaign of the “Three Warfares” against Taiwan continues to loom large and remains our grave concern.
Geopolitically speaking, Taiwan is situated in a strategically crucial part of the first island chain, and it plays an indispensable role in the global supply chain. We produce 60 percent of the world’s semiconductors and 90 percent of its advanced chips. In other words, Taiwan matters to the global economy and security. An invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly provoke U.S. intervention. China understands this and likely seeks to take Taiwan without firing a shot. That’s why these non-military threats are so serious.
But let me be clear: this is not a reason for complacency. In fact, China’s ambitions do not stop at Taiwan. Allowing Taiwan to follow the footsteps of Hong Kong would have serious repercussions for many other countries.
Some may think that Taiwan’s fate is not Canada’s fight, or that there may still be time to worry about it later. But Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine. At a time when authoritarianism is on the rise globally, and even democracies are seeing illiberal trends, the need to build resilience for Taiwan has never been more pressing.
So, can the world come together now for Taiwan—before something terrible happens? My answer is: absolutely yes. Canada can help show the way. Standing with Taiwan is more than about the values we share—it’s a step that aligns closely with Canada’s national interests. The Indo-Pacific Strategy that was unveiled in November 2022 clearly states that. Canada affirms that deepening exchanges with Taiwan across various domains will ensure its greater security and prosperity. Because of this, we can foresee a continuation of all the ongoing efforts. The HMCS Ottawa that sailed through the Taiwan Strait in February marks the sixth such peaceful transit already, since the release of that monumental policy.
In closing, my hope is that Canada will go on to be more proactive in helping Taiwan—by trading more with Taiwan, engaging more with Taiwan, learning from Taiwan, and supporting Taiwan as a vital partner and friend. In doing so, Canada will send a powerful message to the world and to China: that Taiwan is not alone, and that democracy is worth standing up for.