But then something happened: After Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report was released that week on the scandal over President Biden leaving classified documents unsecured in his personal home and office as vice president and U.S. senator—which found Mr. Biden couldn’t stand trial because he was “an elderly man with a poor memory”—things started to change again.
Making matters worse, Mr. Biden held a snap press conference defending his memory—then mixed up Mexico and Egypt. In a new graph from PredictIt, Mr. Newsom’s chances of garnering the Democratic Party’s nomination for president spiked right after Feb. 7, doubling from 9 cents to 18 cents on Feb. 9.
As of Feb. 19, it was still 15 cents.
The graph also shows how the fortunes of Vice President Kamala Harris, another Californian, also spiked, from 4 cents on Feb. 7 to 9 cents on Feb. 9. It’s now at 7 cents.
The PredictIt line jumps from 22 cents on Feb. 7 to 28 cents on Feb. 9. Then it settles back down to 26 cents on Feb. 19. That’s a high number.
What Is Political Betting?
Of course, all this is conjecture. And this doesn’t mean to suggest anyone should be gambling here. But betting odds do often have a basis in reality. The odds for sports games are calculated the same way, such as for the Super Bowl.“The value of your shares will change over time. You may decide to sell your shares later on, either to take some profit or stop a loss. Or, you can hold onto your shares until the market closes. At that point, if the event in the market has taken place, we’ll redeem ‘Yes’ shares at $1. If it has not, ‘No’ shares will have that $1 value instead.”
Sports TV shows nowadays talk nonstop about rumors concerning player injuries, the weather, spats on the team or with the owner, etc. Likewise, political betting is based on what we all watch on TV or read in The Epoch Times or on other sites. And there’s one more thing: gossip.
When I lived in Washington, D.C., as a journalist from 1982 to 1987, I would go to parties and hear nothing but gossip—about the secret lives of politicians, who was in and who was out on President Reagan’s cabinet, what might be in his next speech, etc. I once tallied which rumors turned out to be true—and it came out exactly 50 percent; meaning also 50 percent false. So there was no predictive value.
But I was just a journalist. What about someone who’s the friend of a cabinet undersecretary’s wife and hears some insider information—and, nowadays, bets on PredictIt? What are the current rumors in Washington about the president’s health? If you went to any of the many parties there, you would get an earful.
Biden Questions Continue
After the Biden disaster on Feb. 8, new prominence was given to an interview Ms. Harris gave two days earlier, on Feb. 6, to the Wall Street Journal. “I am ready to serve. There’s no question about that,” she said when asked about voters’ concerns over Mr. Biden’s leadership. She said those who see her working walk “away fully aware of my capacity to lead.”Conclusion: Newsom and Harris Speculation to Continue
Mr. Biden isn’t going to get any younger. It’s also long been known the presidency is such a demanding job, it ages its occupants at a rapid rate. Fox News on Feb. 13 put out a speculative piece, “Meet 5 Democrats who have been floated as possible Biden replacements.”No. 1 is Mr. Newsom, who has “perhaps been the most mentioned name as a potential presidential nominee, given his outspoken criticism of national Republican figures as well as his high-profile clash with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at a debate hosted by Fox News last year.”
No. 3 is former First Lady Michelle Obama. No. 4 is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. And Nov. 5 is Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
It just goes to show how political fortunes can turn on a dime. On March 5, Mr. Biden should easily win all the Democratic Party’s Super Tuesday primaries, in including California’s, sealing his nomination.
But the doubts about his capacity to govern will increase with every memory lapse and physical fall—as the dreams of glory swell in Ms. Harris and Mr. Newsom.
