While the focus of world attention has shifted in the past few weeks from Ukraine to the Middle East, it would be a mistake to ignore events in the Indo-Pacific, especially the South China Sea.
Heightened aggression by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) towards other nations has been notable over recent weeks and months.
Apart from the ongoing intimidation of Taiwan, the PLA has increased its aggression against other countries with claims to the South China Sea, and against international missions to protect international waters.
At the forefront of this aggression is an ongoing assault on the territory over which the Philippines asserts sovereignty.
The Chinese aggression has centred on the Second Thomas Shoal (also known as the Ayungin Shoal), a rocky outcrop in the Palawan passage.
It is just 106 nautical miles from the Philippines and part of the nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Importantly for the rest of the world, the Palawan trough is an important international shipping passage.
In 2016, the U.N. Arbitral Tribunal determined that the Philippines possesses sovereign rights to resources at Second Thomas Shoal and that China has no lawful territorial or maritime claim to Second Thomas Shoal.
Beijing has continued to reject the ruling and has become more aggressive.
In 1999, the Philippines grounded one of its naval ships, the BRP Sierra Madre, on the reef and has maintained personnel on it since, replenishing their supplies periodically.
On a number of occasions since 2014, the Chinese attempted to block the resupply of the vessel, hoping that it would eventually break up.
On Oct. 22, 2023, a collision occurred between a Chinese Coast Guard ship and a Philippine vessel conducting a resupply mission to the Shoal. A second minor collision involved a Chinese maritime militia vessel and a Philippine Coast Guard ship.
Whether intentional or accidental, the incidents would not have occurred but for Chinese aggression.
The Philippines and other nations, including the U.S., have protested.
“All incidents like this will bolster the case that it’s not the Philippines that’s the aggressor, but the other party which is China,” said a spokesperson for the Philippine Foreign Ministry.
The U.S. Ambassador to Manila wrote that “the United States condemns the PRC’s (People’s Republic of China) latest disruption of a legal Philippine resupply mission to the Ayungin shoal, putting the lives of Filipino service members at risk.”
Encroaching Through ‘Grey Zone’ Tactics
Many security experts believe the Chinese actions are designed to provoke the Philippines, causing an incident for which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will blame the Philippines.These “grey zone” tactics are used by the CCP regularly, both against the Philippines and other countries, notably Taiwan.
They run the risk of war breaking out because of misadventure or reckless behaviour.
PLA pilots have also engaged in dangerous flying behaviour, moving their aircraft very close to planes from other nations, including Australia and Canada, while on patrol in the region.
The increase in activity has followed the publication by the CCP of new maps that claim vast areas beyond China as its own, including all of the South China Sea.
The latest incidents at Ayungin shoal led the U.S. State Department to reaffirm that the 1951 U.S.—Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty extended to attacks on Philippine Forces and vessels in the South China Sea.
The United States and the Philippines recently conducted joint naval exercises in the South China Sea, aimed at improving the ability of the two forces to work together.
President Biden’s remarks about Chinese aggression reinforced the comments of the U.S. ambassador and the State Department.
Some commentators regard the new level of Chinese aggression as a precursor to open conflict.
However, it is more likely a continuation of the “grey zone” tactics of the CCP, and its psychological warfare against other nations, especially Taiwan.
The immediate objective appears to be to gain control over the South China Sea.
This will only be avoided by the continual presence of the vessels and planes of other nations, including Australia, in the area.
As the Japanese have demonstrated in the East China Sea, the continued presence of their Coast Guard and naval vessels is a blockage to Chinese ambitions.
In the meantime, Australia needs to end its dithering over critical defence acquisitions the nation needs.
