Things keep looking up for the federal Conservatives under leader Pierre Poilievre. Everything for now seems to be heading in the right direction for him to become the next prime minister.
Coletto also says, “The Liberals can take literally nothing for granted.”
Poilievre is certainly carrying himself like a leader with the wind at his sails. He appears to have boundless energy as he travels across the country attending events with a schedule as full as that of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Poilievre is clearly not afraid of putting in the hours and hard work of connecting with people all across the country.
When Poilievre ran for the leadership of the party, he enjoyed large crowds eager to come out and hear his message. But there were doubts as to whether he could sustain this momentum as Opposition leader, slogging it out in the many months between winning the leadership and contesting a general election.
It seems he’s had no problem, though. Poilievre continues to attract crowds across the country at his events.
People have taken note of his new look as well. He’s ditched the glasses and often wears fitted T-shirts that show off his physique.
What’s also warmed the hearts of many voters is the role Poilievre’s wife plays in his leadership. Anaida Poilievre is front and centre at many events—meeting with people, delivering enthusiastic speeches, and making it clear that she’s backing her husband’s political ambitions for all of the right reasons. The Poilievres, who have two young children at home, come across as a down-to-earth Canadian family who just want to make the country a better place.
All of this is in contrast to how things currently stand with Justin Trudeau. There is a natural shelf life to any politician in higher office, and Trudeau appears to have reached his.
A good tenure for a Canadian prime minister is just under a decade. That was the amount of time Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper were in office. When people stick around longer, they begin to go stale. It was only once Jean Chretien hit 10 years in office that insiders really started to grumble about pushing him out.
The Americans appear to have solved this problem by restricting their presidents to serving a maximum of eight years, which seems to be about the sweet spot for how long the public can go before they get sick of their leaders.
Trudeau has now been in office for eight years. He’s survived a number of scandals, but they continue to mount. The voters have so many more reasons to be frustrated with him today than they did when he first got into office and had no real record for them to complain about. An Aug. 8 approval poll by Morning Consult finds that Trudeau has an approval rating of 41 percent compared to a 53 percent disapproval rating—a net negative of 12 points.
Trudeau represents broken promises, while Poilievre represents hope for doing things better.
But there isn’t an election today and there won’t be one tomorrow. The rumour around the Ottawa bubble is that there will be one this fall, but such rumours have been wrong before. Besides, campaigns are strange things and a lot of reversals of fortune can happen in the course of a five-week run.
Whenever the election is, the question now becomes how long Poilievre can hold on to the momentum he currently enjoys. For now, he’s in a very strong position.
