The United States, at much cost of treasure and blood, has created a window for the freedom-loving people of Iran. Now, an opportunity exists to replace the regime of mullahs with a representative government, based on a constitution approved by all Iranians to serve all Iranians.
This window cannot be kept open forever. But there is a possible road map for Iranians to, in this brief window of time, leap from tyranny to liberty.
It is unwise for the United States to impose a government on Iran. Such a government will, crucially, lack legitimacy in the eyes of the Iranian people, may require long-term U.S. military commitment to prop up, and, as soon as our military commitment wanes, will likely fall the way we have seen in Iraq and in Afghanistan.
On the other hand, it is also not feasible for the United States to wait indefinitely, keeping enormous military assets on alert in theater, while waiting, with no end in sight, for the Iranian politicians to “figure something out.” The best outcome of Epic Fury is a new Iranian government with legitimacy at home and abroad. How do we get there?
A Road Map in 75 Days
The following is a road map for a national constitutional convention and the constitution’s ratification. It will start with a cease-fire, to begin when the Iranian government, or a consortium of local civilian and regular army leaders, announces its willingness to let the Iranian people begin the process of drafting a new constitution.
The cease-fire will include Iranians abiding by the terms of the cease-fire, such as telling their proxies, like Hezbollah, to stand down.
15 Days: Assembling the Convention Delegates
10 Days: Application period for constitutional delegates: Every Iranian, 21 years and older, can apply to be a constitutional delegate. Each delegate applicant must have the verified signatures of 16 citizens, 21 years and older, nominating him or her. Would-be delegates could videotape 16 other citizens signing their nomination papers. Overseas Iranian citizens would have an option of applying as applicants from their home province or their “overseas province.”Seven delegates will be randomly selected from three special categories: lawyers/judges, university faculty/students, and mothers. Thus, the three categories will include people who have legal training and know existing laws, educated citizens, and those who raise children—a huge incentive to build long-term peace and prosperity.
For the selection process, random draws should be conducted in public places, preferably by 2-year-old toddlers with zero incentive to cheat.
A certain number of eligible delegate applicants will also be randomly selected as general delegates, with each province having a number of general delegates according to its population—one general delegate for every 200,000 people. For instance, Ilam will have two general delegates plus 21 special category delegates, and Tehran will have 66 delegates plus 21 special category delegates.
In total, there will be 385 general delegates and 651 special category delegates.
40 Days: Drafting the Constitution
5 Days: Setting up logistics and procedures; concurrently, vote to establish a presiding committee.15 Days: Nationwide Ratification Vote
These tasks will take place concurrently:Ten days to display a draft of the constitution in all public places, in order to notify the public of the upcoming vote;
Ten days to have election observers in place—for instance, Muslims from Malaysia, Indonesia, Albania, India.
Ten days to set up the apparatus of elections: polling places/poll workers, booths, ballots, etc.
Ten days to verify and publish the most current voter roll.
Ten days to set up voting procedures (identification, etc.) for overseas Iranian citizen voters.
5 Extra Days:
The process will include five extra days to allow for any delays.Potential Outcomes
It is not unlikely that the leadership of the Islamic Republic will refuse this offer.In that event, two things may happen: First, it may further clarify that the current regime is fighting for regime survival, not for the defense of the Iranian nation. Secondly, it may give political forces within Iran—the regular army, for example—a reason to step in to make the cease-fire possible.
It is also likely that the United States will not be entirely satisfied with the resultant constitution/government.
However, if the alternative is a decade-long military commitment such as our costly involvements in Iraq and Afghanistan (which, lest we forget, ended with us leaving these two countries to unfriendly governments), it would be better for the United States to have an “80 percent ally” whose legitimacy, and hence durability, comes directly from the expressed consent of the Iranian people.
Are 75 days too short to draft a constitution? Perhaps.
However, a constitution need not be perfect: the U.S. Constitution has 27 amendments. With a robust amendment process, Iranians can modify their constitution in the future as the rubber hits the road. And 75 days is probably the most the United States can offer, as public opinion on this action is sharply divided before the midterm election.
As Sun Tzu said, “There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited.”
We must not let this become an open-ended conflict. The longer it lasts, the more likely it is that some truly awful outcomes may become possible.
Those outcomes could include chaos and civil wars. Chaotic civil wars are seldom won by the silent majority. More often, the final victory belongs to a well-organized and ideologically driven minority. During a civil war, fissile material may end up in the hands of some truly terrible people; some of the chaos will undoubtedly spread to neighboring countries.
They could also mean the splintering of Iran, likely accompanied by coerced population transfer and ethnic cleansing. As a reminder, the 1947 partition of India displaced 10 million people and may have caused 1 million to 2 million deaths.
It will cost the United States nothing to make this conditional cease-fire offer to Iran.
It may even gain the support of some naysayers, both domestically and abroad. The cease-fire will of course include fine print such as not allowing Iran to reposition military forces/equipment, not allowing it to import military hardware, and suspending the Hormuz Strait blockade.
On the other hand, if Americans and Iranians make this work, it will foster long-term regional stability and avoid costly—and potentially bloody—long-term American involvement. And the Iranian people will have an opportunity to live in liberty, on their own terms.