Nuclear Games in Russia Destabilizing the World

Putin moves tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus and is threatened by Russian mercenaries and wary elites

Residents pose for a photograph with a member of the Wagner Group in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023. (Roman Romokhov/AFP via Getty Images)

Commentary

The nuclear posture of Russia, Eastern Europe, and the world is becoming less stable by the day.

For starters, Russia has confirmed that it has moved tactical nuclear weapons into neighboring Belarus. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the weapons would be used only if the Russian state or territory were threatened.

That criterion needs further explanation–or maybe it doesn’t.

Putin’s vow to defend Russian territory using nuclear weapons if necessary is clearly understood, even though it is utterly hypocritical in light of his invasion of Ukraine.

The War Against Putin

But what does Putin mean by his term of a threat to the Russian “state”?

One could interpret that to mean any threat to Putin himself since he is essentially the state of Russia. In fact, Putin may well be saying to the West that any threat to him personally would be met with nuclear retaliation.

Is there another reasonable way to look at it?

What else could a threat to the Russian state mean, especially since President Joe Biden made remarks that appeared to be a call to remove Putin? A White House official downplayed the president’s remarks—but why should Putin believe otherwise?

And yes, Ukraine also rescinded its demand that Putin’s removal be part of a peace plan.

But the longer the war goes on and the more death, destruction, and atrocities that Russia inflicts upon Ukraine, the less likely it is that any peace deal would be agreed upon or honored with Putin still in power.

Internal Threats Abound

Even some Russian elites see that reality and the fact that Putin threatens their own survival.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin delivers a video address on June 24, 2023. (Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

This internal divide puts Putin in a tough spot. Even if he wins the war, he may well find himself resting “six feet under” in the peace. In other words, Putin’s very life may depend on his ability to prolong the war.

Besides, the United States has a long history of regime change in countries such as Libya, Iraq, and others; given the financial and material effort that the United States is pouring into Ukraine and against Russia, Putin has every reason to believe that he is the ultimate target.

Many Russian elites fear either outcome, with some wanting to replace Putin and many doubting Russia’s ability to prevail in the war.

Hence, Putin’s decision to move tactical nukes into Belarus may be as much of a reaction against Russian elites as it is against the U.S. military involvement in Ukraine.

In doing so, Putin is, for all intents and purposes, expanding the war.

Belarus relies heavily on Russia for fuel, and President Alexander Lukashenko owes his political survival to Putin. Given their close allegiance, an attack on Belarus, which lies on Ukraine’s northern border, would likely be viewed as an attack on Russia.

The Wagner Group Changes the Game

But the United States isn’t the only player in the Ukraine war threatening Putin’s political and personal existence.

The Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, recently threatened to march on Moscow after an alleged attack on their position by the Russian military.

The coup was aborted shortly after it began for reasons that are murky at this point. But we know that Belarus mediated talks between Putin and Prigozhin, and that Prigozhin’s brief but high-profile rebellion has threatened Putin’s credibility and ability to lead and defend the country. Lukashenko also offered Prigozhin asylum in Belarus.

But an even greater fear in Russia and, indeed, the entire world is the possibility that the Wagner Group has gained possession of tactical nuclear weapons.

A Global Catastrophe Averted?

Wagner is said to have potentially gained access to one of Russia’s nuclear-weapon storage facilities in the central Voronezh region of the country. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warned that the world would be on the “brink of a catastrophe” if the Wagner Group gets nuclear weapons, according to Russian state media TASS.

Obviously, the potential for rogue, non-state actors to obtain nukes of any size or capability adds a new layer of complexity in preventing the use of nuclear weapons.

Would the Wagner mercenaries sell any nukes they may possess to the highest bidder? Will they use them to challenge Putin?

Or both?

The Wagner Group’s autonomy and power complicate Putin’s maneuverability and potentially lessen his authority and control over Russian forces. Nukes in Wagner’s hands would most certainly minimize Putin’s control over them.

Putin’s World Is Complex

The situation that Putin faces today is magnitudes more complex than he could have anticipated when he decided to invade Ukraine.

The results have already been disastrous for both Ukraine and Russia; the effects continue to ripple both outward and inward.

Putin finds his forces fighting against advanced Western armaments from Europe and the United States. His soldiers grow disillusioned, his credibility is weaker, his leadership has been challenged, and his ability to control strategic military events within his own borders is slipping away.

At the same time, he’s expanding the territory of the war, adding nukes in Belarus even as he may be losing control of them in Russia.

There is indeed no rest for Putin.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.