Not Business as Usual for Thailand After Protests

Leading economist says it is not business as usual for Thailand after traumatic political upheavals.
Not Business as Usual for Thailand After Protests
Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may be promoting the idea of reconciliation and his government is talking up positive economic growth figures, but there is no real indication Thailand's political crisis is on the mend. (Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images)
6/20/2010
Updated:
10/1/2015
BANGKOK—Despite the Thai economy continuing its growth through the traumatic political upheavals that occurred in Bangkok during April-May, a leading economist says it is not business as usual for Thailand.

<a><img src="https://www.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2015/09/thailand101251714.jpg" alt="Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may be promoting the idea of reconciliation and his government is talking up positive economic growth figures, but there is no real indication Thailand's political crisis is on the mend. (Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images)" title="Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may be promoting the idea of reconciliation and his government is talking up positive economic growth figures, but there is no real indication Thailand's political crisis is on the mend. (Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images)" width="320" class="size-medium wp-image-1818401"/></a>
Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may be promoting the idea of reconciliation and his government is talking up positive economic growth figures, but there is no real indication Thailand's political crisis is on the mend. (Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images)
Dr. Supavud Saicheua, managing director and head of research at Phatra Securities, said Thailand’s economic growth was almost unaffected by the two-month long antigovernment protests in Bangkok, which left 88 people dead (mainly protesters) and more than 1,800 injured.

Tourism he said was the only sector badly affected and he described the country’s 4 percent plus GDP growth as being export driven.

“There were tourists arriving before the unrest at about 1.6 million persons per month—and it dropped to around 1 million in April and there were probably less in May,” he said.

“I think the government can [now] help tourism a lot by lifting the emergency decree, which will testify to a degree of normalcy in Thailand,” said Supavud.

The Thai government’s emergency decree put in place on April 7 bans gatherings of more than five people, limits freedom of expression, and gives greater powers to the country’s security forces.

“Unfortunately, [in lifting the decree] there will be more of these [anti-government] website and radio stations and even more demonstrations,” Supavud said while adding with the main tourist season beginning in October, he did not think many high-end tourists will visit Thailand this year.

Thailand’s Oxford-educated Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has downplayed the decree’s affect on business confidence, and has instead talked up Thailand’s economy, and promoted his reconciliation road map.

Meanwhile some foreign businessmen, who have experienced previous bouts of instability in the kingdom—there have been 10 coups since 1970—are presuming business will be able to continue as usual.

However, Supavud said he did not agree Thailand can continue with a ‘business as usual’ approach because, despite talks of a reconciliation process, there is no end in sight to the country’s political crisis.

“Thailand has had many coups in the past and the indicators of a successful coup is that it was never again questioned [by the populace],” he said.

“[2006] is the first time you have a coup that was successful in the sense that it did install a new government, but its legitimacy is being questioned all the time and its legacy: the [military backed] 2007 constitution is being questioned all the time,” Supavud said.

The Thai military in 2006 ousted the former prime minister and billionaire businessman Thaksin Shinawatra after massively corrupt business dealings sent tens of thousands of yellow shirt protesters, lead by Bangkok’s middle-class, out onto the streets demanding his resignation.

Supavud said it could be first argued that the antigovernment red shirt protesters have been misled by former PM Thaskin to neither accept the 2006 coup nor the subsequent Democrat government. Previously, said Supavud, military coups and regime changes have been accepted by the Thai population with little fuss.

“Or you could argue that ‘no’ there is a fundamental change in the Thai people who are now much more aware and assertive of their political rights … and insisting on making sure that political power rests with them in an election,” he said.

Supavud says he favored the second argument. “Whatever the misgivings of the 1997 constitution are, I think it really did bring about much more democracy in Thailand. It really did diversify the political system into local elections, and people suddenly felt empowered, and it seems to me that this is irreversible,” Supavud said.

Thaksin, one of the few Thai prime ministers to serve out a full term in office, had been voted in by the rural poor from Thailand’s north and northeast in 2001. Along with their extended family members who migrated to urban areas in search of work (usually low paying), Supavud says these people make up 70 percent of the Thai population. He also described them as largely sympathetic to the red-shirt cause and its attempt to pressure the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to dissolve Parliament and call an early election.

The results of any such election if it proceeded, commentators say, would have most likely resulted in having Puea Thai (a pro-Thaksin party) coming to power.

The current Thai authorities claim that Thaksin, who lives in self-imposed exile to avoid a jail sentence for corruption, is behind the red-shirt protests, which ended with protesters setting fire to over 30 buildings in the Thai capital on May 19. Thaksin and red-shirt hardliners have been labeled “terrorists” by the government.