After teams quickly gutted their rosters from 90 to 53 players (and poor Tiki Barber showing up nowhere) the NFL’s regular season is almost set to kickoff, which means it’s time to re-do this writer’s annual guess of how things will eventually shake out in the end, some five months down the road.
On to the NFC projections (personal Super Bowl odds in parenthesis), with the AFC getting their props tomorrow, beginning with the least likely:
Carolina (225:1) Not much positive to say about the Panthers as they’re on their third different starting QB in the last three seasons, fresh off last year’s toilet-bowl run as the league’s worst team (2–14). A lot hinges on run-pass QB Cam Newton’s progress as his type is so difficult to predict (see Michael Vick and his new backup Vince Young).
Washington (155:1) Mike Shanahan’s overhaul of last year’s 6–10 team continues as they finally cut ties with the once-dominant (and now super-rich) Albert Haynesworth. The overhaul certainly isn’t complete though as QB Rex Grossman, and his career 70.9 QB rating, was recently named the starter, while RB Tim Hightower leads a group of backfield mates now devoid of former All-Pro Clinton Portis’s talent.
Seattle (150:1) Pete Carroll’s team last year (7–9, -97 point differential) on paper had no business being in the playoffs (let alone HOSTING a game), other than the someone’s-gotta-come-out-of-the-West rule, but surprised everyone with their win over the defending champion Saints. This year, I don’t see how they’re better with Hasselbeck out and Tavaris Jackson in at QB.
Arizona (145:1) The Cardinals took matters into their own hands and met the Eagles’ price for QB Kevin Kolb. Whether he’s worth it is another thing, but he looks to be an upgrade over Derek Anderson and it doesn’t hurt to have the top wideout in the league to throw to, but even if Beanie Wells is injury-free at RB the Cards have to let up much less than the 434 points than they did last year.
San Francisco (140:1) Out of respect for the miracle new head coach Jim Harbaugh pulled at Stanford, the Niners get this high (granted this is still 11th worst in the conference). The recent history hasn’t been that great for this once-proud franchise (no seasons above .500 since Mariucci’s firing) but with Frank Gore, a good O-line, and solid defense, they could hold their own against the other underwhelming teams of the NFC West.
Minnesota (125:1) The Vikings are certainly a mystery. They have two of the league’s most exciting play-makers in Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin and still have sack-master Jared Allen on defense. The big unknown is how well 34-year-old Donovan McNabb will perform, and if last year’s performance is any indication (14TDs, 15 ints), the answer is: not great.
Detroit (110:1) The Lions have drafted a pretty cool 1–2 punch at DT with Suh and Fairley, who are set to wreak havoc on O-lines everywhere. With fellow top draft picks QB Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson in place, Detroit may actually veer from their familiar punching-bag status and compete for their first postseason since Bill Clinton was in office.
St. Louis (100:1) Former top-pick-overall Sam Bradford looks to be a star-in-the-making at QB, whose anticipated success may be enough help the Rams win their weak division. His biggest problem seems to be a lack of skilled position players on offense, especially if Steven Jackson continues his sub-4.0 yards per carry performance from last season. St. Louis does have a good developing defense as DEs Chris Long and Robert Quinn are a formidable combo.
NY Giants (75:1) A tough call here. The Giants have had an unlucky run this offseason, losing some key defensive backs to injury and then watching WR Steve Smith bolt to division rival Philadelphia. Still, it’s tough to not see them at least in the running for the division lead with Tom Coughlin and the good-but-not-in-Tom Brady’s class Eli Manning at the helm.
Tampa Bay (70:1) The Bucs are another tough-to-pick team as last year’s 10–6 squad might have overachieved. They did get a great find in rookie free agent RB LaGarrette Blount (1,007 yards, 5.0 per carry) and had a nice defense-heavy draft, but they have to deal with Atlanta and New Orleans in the South.
Chicago (70:1) The Bears grabbed some bigger names (Roy Williams, Marion Barber, and the newly-released Brandon Meriweather among others) this off-season in free agency to compliment their core of Urlacher-Cutler, but none figures to get them past the second-round of the playoffs.
Dallas (45:1) A bit of a surprise here, but the Cowboys had a refreshed attitude with the promotion of Jason Garrett and the removal of Wade Phillips as head coach. Despite a mid-season injury to Tony Romo, Jerry Jones’s boys fought their way to a 6–10 record and after releasing several players (Roy Williams, Marion Barber, and Leonard Davis) should be in the mix for a postseason spot this year.
New Orleans (25:1) The Saints still have a number of good players around elite QB Drew Brees (who, incidentally, COULD say he’s in the same class as Brady). However, sometimes winning a Super Bowl seems to erase a team’s urgency, which could be said of New Orleans last year.
Atlanta (10:1) The Falcons gave a lot to take Julio Jones in last April’s draft but the talented wideout should give the Falcons, and Matt Ryan, a great 1–2 receiving punch along with Roddy White. Atlanta has to have a bad taste in their mouth after last season’s embarrassing home playoff loss (48–21) to Green Bay. It’d still be a surprise for them to get past either of the two top dogs (below) in this conference.
Philadelphia (4:1) The Eagles made the big free agency splash by swooping in out of nowhere and grabbing coveted CB Nnamdi Asomugha from Rex Ryan’s grasp. They continued their secondary overhaul by getting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb deal. After signing WR Steve Smith from the Giants’ grasp, they are now so loaded with speed and talent at the skill positions that a hopeful matchup with the defending champs in the title game should be an instant classic.
Green Bay (2:1) It’s tough to criticize the Packers for not making any major moves this offseason, given that they won it all last year. They really didn’t need to do much as long as they still have All-Pro QB Aaron Rodgers (who, incidentally, is Brady-worthy as well) calling the shots. And although the Saints seemed not so hungry last year after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, Aaron Rodgers seems blessed with the Roger Federer-always-hungry-for-another-title appetite.
