Newt Gingrich on the Midterm Elections

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), in Washington on Oct. 24, 2019. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

Commentary

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has long been considered by many to be one of the greatest political minds in our lifetime. In 1994, he and Dick Armey were the masterminds behind the Contract with America. The contract was drafted by Armey and Gingrich with the goal of promising the American people a legislative agenda that spelled out exactly what the Republicans were committing to implement if they became the majority party. It was genius and demonstrated that the authors, at least, understood the concerns of the American people.

I asked the former Speaker how it was that he has so successfully understood the mindset of Americans. He told me that it was his commitment to studying history.

“I’m a historian so I try to take things and put them into context of other times and other places,“ he said. ”I really believe in Lincoln’s formula: ‘A government of the people, by the people, for the people.’ That means you have to spend a lot of time every day listening to the American people.”

After all, in part, the Contract with America borrowed text from President Ronald Reagan’s 1985 State of the Union address that resonated with so many at the time. The contract was a master stroke and the key to the first GOP House in 40 years.

“We the people” are currently suffering today: the economy, crime, a weak border, fentanyl poisoning, to name a few concerns. And since all these issues reach into the lives of all Americans, and because President Joe Biden has failed to address them in any meaningful way, it has resulted in very few Democrats seeking Biden’s support for the midterms.

On that topic, Gingrich told me that “President Biden has become so unpopular that as a practical matter most candidates don’t want him near them. One of the most effective things Republicans can do is tie their Democrat opponent to Biden. He basically has to go on vacation to Delaware and try to stay out of the race. The only places he’s going are either extremely Democrat or hopeless.”

When asked about the effectiveness of former President Barack Obama campaigning for the Democrats, he said: “I think Obama is kind of a voice out of the past. I don’t know that he is very effective. He might marginally increase turnout among Democratic partisans. He’s not going to reach out and convince anybody who is an independent or who is unhappy about high prices and unhappy about the border or crime or the radicalism in the schools.”

Gingrich believes that “the Democrat problem is that they really are who they are and that their record really is what it is. And people now know it.”

He went on to talk about how surprised he was at the amount of damage the Democrats were able to accomplish in just two short years.

“I’m really amazed, and if you had asked me in January, February, or March, after Biden first took over, could they do this much damage this quickly, I would have said I don’t think so,“ he said. ”I think they are both more radical and frankly dumber. The combination of the two is just devastating. Whether it is Afghanistan, or it’s the price of gasoline, or the growing shortage of diesel fuel—you look around and you can’t imagine how many things they are doing wrong.”

His sense is that there’s a big shift in many states: Latinos are moving dramatically toward the Republican party, as are women. According to the Wall Street Journal, between August and October 2022, there has been a shift of 27 percentage points in suburban women from Democrat to Republican. Suburban women have long been a mainstay of Democrat support. Gingrich believes the switch to be the result of “the price of food, education issues, and crime.”

Comments on Particular Races

The Speaker weighed in on a few races. He told me that the gubernatorial races for him have been the most fascinating to watch.

Arizona governor race: On Kari Lake: “For somebody who hasn’t even won yet, Kari Lake has somehow become a national figure and has really struck a nerve with people.”

New York governor race: Gingrich feels that Lee Zeldin has run a good race. Gingrich pointed out that when the Orthodox Jewish Schools were attacked by the New York Times and some politicians on the left, Zeldin was quick to defend them while Kathy Hochul did not. Gingrich believes that the large number of Orthodox Jewish voters in New York, who normally vote Democrat, may remember who it was that defended them. He also believes that that voting block has also been unhappy with the radicalism taught in the schools.

Pennsylvania Senate race: On Dr. Oz: “The polls have shown a very significant shift towards Dr. Oz, “I think it is a combination of the crime issue where Fetterman has been probably the most pro-murderer candidate in American history. When people look at that and the level of crime in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, it’s been as big a drag as Fetterman’s health issues.”

I asked him if any race or candidate surprised him.

Georgia Senate race: “Herschel Walker, a pleasant surprise when he won the debate against Warnock because Warnock is a professional preacher. Walker did an amazingly good job.”

New Hampshire Senate race: “I always thought that Don Bolduc could win in New Hampshire. He is now ahead. I have always thought Maggie Hassan was the weakest candidate up for re-election.”

Washington Senate race: “Tiffany Smiley is a wonderful surprise. She is just a remarkable human being. What she did with her husband when he lost both eyes to an IED, she worked and got the Army to agree for the first time in history to keep on active duty someone who is blind. She has been one of the nicest surprises during the entire campaign. I think Patty Murray will probably lose.”

Newt Gingrich Mid-Term Predictions

Finally, the Speaker gave his predictions on the outcome of the House and Senate races.

The House Races:

Somewhere between +20 and +60.

Most likely number being 44.

The Senate Races:

Somewhere between +2 and +7, depending on how big the wave.

The most likely number probably 4 or 5.

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. As a nonpartisan public charity, The Epoch Times does not endorse these statements and takes no position on political candidates.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.