According to a proposed scoping plan, New York residents might be forced to—as early as 2030—replace their boilers with electric heat pumps, drive electric cars, and switch to electric appliances for cooking, drying clothes, or heating water.
Environmental advocates staunchly support the draft scoping plan. But the plan has drawn widespread criticism from residents, energy experts, lawmakers, and some local governments.
The draft plan estimates that three sectors—building, transportation, and electricity generation—are the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in New York. So the plan’s key strategies are focused on electrification in buildings, transportation electrification, and zero-emissions electricity generation.
Future of ‘All-Electric’
“Electrification of space and water heating with high-efficiency heat pumps is a viable, cost-effective approach to decarbonizing operations for nearly all buildings in New York,” the draft scoping plan stated.The plan suggests to “prohibit gas/oil replacements (at end of useful life) of heating and cooling and hot water equipment for single-family homes” by 2030 and “prohibit gas appliance replacements (at end of useful life) for cooking and clothes drying” by 2035.
It also called for “all-electric State codes” to prohibit gas/oil equipment or appliances for new construction of single-family and low-rise residential buildings by 2024 and the same restrictions for residential buildings over four stories and commercial buildings by 2027.
Almost all passenger cars sold in the state must be electric cars by 2030, according to the plan.
“By 2030 nearly 100% of LDV [light-duty vehicle] sales and 40% or more of MHD [medium- and heavy-duty] vehicle sales must be ZEVs [zero-emission vehicles] and a substantial portion of personal transportation in urbanized areas would be required to shift to public transportation and other low-carbon modes,” the plan declared.
Affordability and Reliability
Roger Caiazza, a meteorologist and a former executive director of the Environmental Energy Alliance of New York, said affordability and reliability are the two biggest concerns for the “electrify everything” plan. He has worked in the environmental field for over 40 years.“There [are] two big things,” Caiazza told The Epoch Times. “Affordability. All of these costs for us–to convert our homes, buy the electric vehicle, buy the charging infrastructure for the electric vehicle–all that stuff is an upfront cost to us.”
The estimated cost of converting to heat pumps is $20,000. However, Caiazza said heat pumps alone don’t work well, homeowners have to do window treatments and improve insulation to make houses warm in winter.
The higher electricity price would also be a burden for residents, said Caiazza. He pointed out that electricity price “goes way up” where more renewable energy is used to generate electricity, such as in Germany.
“The other piece is reliability,” said Caiazza. “Basically, wind and solar are intermittent. And the resources you need to cover–when the wind isn’t blowing and when it’s night–get really expensive. ... You’re gonna need enormous amounts of storage for that. And that’s going to add costs.”
Upcoming Mandates
Some are concerned with the future mandates pushed by the draft scoping plan because once the scoping plan is adopted, state agencies would issue rules or regulations to compel industries and residents to meet the standards.The Greene County Legislature identified that the plan “mandates over a hundred (if not several hundred) different measures affecting all aspects of our daily lives and community activities.”
Land for Solar and Wind Farms
Another county is concerned with the enormous amount of land needed for solar farms.
The County Board officially announced its opposition to the draft scoping plan and sent its resolution to Gov. Kathy Hochul, the state legislature, and all others “deemed necessary and proper.”
“If we cover even our marginal farmland with the solar panels, we’re going to be in big trouble,” Becker said. Madison is a rural county located in central New York State.
Becker said there’s currently a water shortage to the west, and lands in the northeast have an abundance of fresh water which would be necessary for vegetables, beef, and dairy.
“Covering even marginal farmland with these things that are not recyclable, and most of them come from China,” said Becker. “What are we really accomplishing here?”
He pointed out that shipping these panels from China would produce a lot of carbon emissions.
Wind farms are even worse. For example, the Alle Catt wind farm in western New York covers 30,000 acres with a 340 MW capacity, 88 acres per MW. Capacity doesn’t mean electricity generated because wind or solar can’t operate 24 hours a day. Wind and solar’s capacity factors, a measure to examine how often a plant is running at maximum power, are much lower than those of natural gas, coal, or nuclear.
Impacts on Economies
Becker said he recently talked to a couple of commissioners in the Public Service Commission and was told the electricity prices would go up significantly, “minimum of 30 percent,” because of the investment required for the transition.“Now our electricity rates are going to be really high. That’s going to really turn up the heat for people to leave. And if businesses can’t compete with cheap electricity, then they’re going to be leaving. This makes no sense,” said Becker. “We’re doing all this in the name of clean energy in Pennsylvania and Delaware, Massachusetts. And everybody around us isn’t doing the same thing. So what are we doing here? It doesn’t make any common sense.”
New York state Senator Thomas O’Mara, a Republican, also called the draft scoping plan “radical” and worried about the economic burdens it would bring.
Some union leaders echoed the concern.
Haley Viccaro, a Communications Director for New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, responded that the scoping plan could provide access to new, affordable, and renewable technologies.
“The State has already realized considerable cost declines for solar and on/offshore wind technologies with distributed solar incentives reduced 85 percent over the last decade, 20-40 percent year-over-year cost declines in large-scale land-based renewables, and 40 percent cheaper offshore wind prices compared to 2018 estimates,” Viccaro told The Epoch Times via email.
Benefits Outweigh the Costs?
The draft scoping plan acknowledged that there would be “significant required investments” to achieve its net-zero emission goal, but claimed that there would be “even greater external benefits.”The plan said the cost would be between $290 billion and $310 billion based on different scenarios, but the benefits would be from $400 billion up to $420 billion. That means the net benefits are estimated at $90 billion to $120 billion.
Between $50 billion to $120 billion benefits are attributed to health benefits from improved air quality “based on reduced mortality and other health outcomes,” according to the plan. An additional $40 billion of the estimated benefits go to “health benefits of increased active transportation (such as walking and cycling).”
The plan has stated that New York needs to “substantially reduce VMT [Vehicle Miles Traveled]” while increasing access to public transportation.
James Hanley, a senior policy analyst at the Empire Center, called the claim that benefits outweigh the cost “false.” Empire Center is an independent, non-partisan think tank based in Albany, New York.
“How much of that benefit goes to New York? It’s impossible to say. But New York contributes about four-tenths of one percent of global CO2 emissions, so let’s assume the state gets an equal share of the benefit. That comes out to $1.4 billion,” continued Hanley.
So there would be a net loss of over $118 to $178 billion, said Hanley.
The authors said most previous studies or analyses only focus on the costs of building, fuel, and some of the emissions. But other costs should be considered as well, such as costs of operating, transportation, storage, backup, recycling, and room or space. The authors also calculated three other vital metrics: material input per service unit, equipment lifetime, and energy return on investment.
Viccaro responded that it is “indisputable is that the cost of inaction is more than $100 billion higher than the cost of investing in a clean energy future in New York State.”
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