The world is facing a strategically difficult period, inflation has become rampant, leading to potential civil strife, political systems are being questioned due to their inability to effectively meet the needs of the populace, and both active and imminent regional conflicts are engulfing the world amidst a new “third age” following the worldwide pandemic.
In such a world, NATO is facing face a culmination of risks that can lead to the failure of any member state unless preparations for national and international continuity are made. Particularly because the very same factors that are affecting our governments domestically are the exact same factors that both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Russian Federation seek to exploit in our nations.
Elections are on the horizon in the U.S. and continental NATO nations, and there are discussed changes to the structure of nations within the alliance, notably the European Union’s own discussions on a domestic military. Countries in the alliance must draw up plans now to ensure the continuity of democratic governments in the event of subversion coordinated by Russia and the CCP.
Protecting Our State Governance From Foreign Interference
Take the following worst-case scenario as the most damaging situation many NATO countries could face, given the geostrategic environment.Within a politically polarized nation, an election is held whereby the buildup to the vote is marred with violence on both sides, which is then inflamed by the efforts of Russia and the CCP. The result leads to the victor winning by a tiny margin (circa 0.5 to 1.5 percent). This, in turn, causes unsubstantiated calls that the vote was marred by irregularity to promulgate through society. If the victory is attained by the incumbent or a recount is necessary, if won by the opposition, it results in the corrosion of the legitimacy of the new government and decay in the process of democracy.
The events above are then “mechanized” via acts of subversion by GRU and MSS, requiring us as NATO allies to focus our concentration on domestic unity instead of keeping our focus on NATO goals like mobilizing further support for Ukraine or measures to protect Taiwan from any potential invasion.
To avoid the worst case where political biases have been weaponized to generate widespread civilian unrest and ultimately the collapse of an existing political system, it seems prudent that NATO member states establish plans that enable the Armed Forces, together with civilians, to step in and ensure our military capabilities remain intact, and the quality of life of our populaces is maintained.
One suggestion has been to create a politically independent office that could ensure that a populace is encompassed without alienation and composed of officers and civilians who have never held either political role.
A committee with a centripetal force composed of members of both civilians and members of the Armed Forces focusing on the emergency continuity of governing institutions would be a mechanism that could maintain focus on those external threats until stability can be returned.
As we watch the activities of GRU in directing further overseas fighters into the Ukraine conflict, the increase of tensions in the Balkans, and Beijing’s invasion “posturing” disguised as MSS-coordinated armed life-fire exercises in the Strait of Taiwan, we must be ready to protect the sanctity of state governance for NATO citizens. Because inevitably, those seeking to upend the established rules-based international order turn their gaze towards our own domestic political environment and seek to use the divisions in our society that they view as fault lines to “excavate” our civil stability through our own societal biases.
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