National Security Expert: Threatened by Democracy, Putin Wants to ‘Damage’ Ukraine Not ‘Dominate’

U.S. foreign policy and national security, Harry Kazianis on NTD Capitol Report, Feb. 15, 2022

An expert on general U.S. foreign policy and national security, Senior Director Harry Kazianis at the Center for National Interest, said it appears Putin does not want to dominate Ukraine, but rather to damage its military, making it less appealing to the European Union and NATO allies.

“I don’t think Putin wants to completely dominate the country. He just wants to damage it,” Kazianis told NTD Capitol Report host Steve Lance in an interview on Feb. 15.

Kazianis said, given the current situation, Putin is not likely to invade Ukraine, but if he did attack, it would be quick.

“But, I think what the Russians would launch would be a very short, sharp war, maybe about a week to two weeks. What they’re essentially trying to do is damage Ukraine’s military, damage its economy to such an extent that NATO or the European Union would never want to touch them,” said Kazianis. “And that makes sense because I think what Putin is afraid of is a strong, vibrant democracy on his borders that’s integrated with the EU, integrating with NATO.”

In the past, Moscow has demanded that Ukraine not join NATO, an idea the United States and its Western allies have rejected.

He said new developments suggest that Putin wants to try diplomacy and not military action to get what he wants in the region.

“I think the Russians are going to hold off for now. There’s actually some recent footage of President Vladimir Putin talking to his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Putin asked Lavrov: was there any more pathways towards diplomacy? ... Was he wasting his time? Actually, Lavrov said that they have not exhausted all diplomatic paths yet. So, I think that is maybe the Russians blinking just slightly.”

In this photo released by the Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pauses during his and Brazilian Foreign Minister Carlos Franca's joint news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on Nov. 30, 2021. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

Kazianis does not think it is in Russia’s best interest to invade Ukraine.

“It would be a disaster for his regime, it would the Ukrainians would fight, they fight hard, they would lose. But it ended up being the mother of all counterinsurgency campaigns that would bleed Russia dry.”

Kazianis said he hopes Putin does not launch an attack because any mistake would be costly and may harm innocent people in surrounding areas.

This screenshot shows the location where a Mi-2 helicopter crashed and caught fire near the village of Zaive in the southern Mykolaiv region, south of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2021. (Google Map/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

“I really, truly hope that that is not Putin’s intent, because the danger here isn’t necessarily a Russian invasion. As bad as that is, but it’s a miscalculation,” said Kazianis. ”I mean, God forbid a Russian missile, you know, has a guidance system problem and lands in Poland and kills people that could trigger Article Five.”

Article Five of the NATO treaty states “collective defense means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.”

While Russia has amassed about 130,000 troops, plus artillery and other heavy equipment, close to Ukraine’s border, the Kremlin has repeatedly denied planning an attack, saying the military movements are about maintaining security against NATO aggression.

Tom Ozimek contributed to this report.