Modelling Predicts NSW COVID-19 Hospitalisation to Peak in October: Premier

September 5, 2021 Updated: September 5, 2021

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian will this week release COVID-19 modelling on the looming peak in case numbers and hospitalisations as the state reported more than 1,400 local cases in a Sunday update.

“All the modelling indicates to us that the peak is likely to be here in the next week or two,” the premier said of the state’s Delta outbreak.

“The peak in hospitalisation and intensive care is likely to be with us in October.”

She also said that her government, in line with the national guidelines for reopening, plans to lift restrictions for NSW’s vaccinated population once adult vaccination rates reach 70 percent fully vaccinated.

Berejiklian said she would this week release the modelling on case and hospitalisation predictions, all of which informs health rules.

“It is important to be as open and transparent as possible but we also want to be clear about the modelling changes every single day,” she said.

NSW reported 1,485 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 and three deaths on Sunday as authorities and residents battle to contain the spread of the virulent delta strain through the locked down state.

The three deaths in the 24 hours to 8 p.m. on Saturday were a woman in her 50s who had one vaccine dose, who died at Blacktown Hospital, a woman in her 70s who died at Campbelltown Hospital, and a man in his 70s who died at Liverpool Hospital, both of whom were unvaccinated.

The death toll for the current NSW outbreak is now 126.

There are 1,030 COVID-19 patients in NSW in hospital, with 175 in intensive care and 72 who require ventilation.

The premier said 40 percent of the state’s population was now fully vaccinated.

“That is an incredible milestone to have reached given where we were a few months ago,” she said.

Berejiklian also flagged that home quarantine would eventually be an option for fully vaccinated citizens returning home to Australia.

NSW Health’s Dr Jeremy McAnulty asked people in the state’s regions to come forward and get tested for even the mildest of symptoms.

The government will make a decision as to whether restrictions can ease in regional NSW after Sept. 10.

Police, fire, and emergency services staff in Sydney’s coronavirus hotspots were encouraged to be vaccinated on Sunday at special vaccination centres.

After announcing a record day of 1,533 positive cases on Saturday, Mr Hazzard said the government wanted to make sure all frontline workers are vaccinated, describing Sunday as a “golden opportunity” for any hold-outs.

At least 73 per cent of NSW residents aged 16 and over have been vaccinated at least once, with more than 7.3 million jabs administered in the state.

A survey of more than 6,500 hotel staff across NSW has found the majority of employees support the premier’s calls for double vaccination and more than half will be fully vaccinated by the end of October.

The Australian Hotels Association NSW Chief Executive Officer John Whelan said it was encouraging that 63.5 per cent of employees surveyed believed it should be a requirement for all hotel employees to be fully vaccinated.

“If you want to get down to the pub when we re-open, get vaccinated now,” Mr Whelan said.

“You’ll need two jabs and you don’t want to be left out when things finally open up.”

A smaller number (6.6 per cent) of staff said they did not intend to be vaccinated while 9.5 per cent were undecided.

Meanwhile, Victoria recorded a further 183 new virus cases on Sunday, 101 of which are linked to known cases and outbreaks. Queensland has reported one new case, and the ACT recorded 15 new cases.

The Epoch Times contributed to this report.