Beijing will be at war with the United States and possibly Australia within five years unless the United States and its allies stop it from launching a strike on Taiwan, a former Australian prime minister said.
“If we fail to navigate the next five years carefully, there is a grave risk that by the late 20s and the early 30s, we could well find ourselves on the cusp of armed conflict.”
Rudd said the conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan could reach “an order of magnitude not seen since the Second World War.”
“However, it would be foolish to conclude, at least from the Chinese perspective, that Xi has therefore shelved his aspiration to retake Taiwan,” he said.
“Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, his language on Taiwan in the official readout from the Bali Summit is arguably more hardline than before.”
Currently, the president and CEO of Asia Society, Rudd, said he believed that Xi could act against Taiwan in the late 2020s or 2030s.
This means Australia needs to keep “clear-eyed” on the possibility of a military conflict with China, even if it seeks to improve relations in the short term.
‘Managed Strategic Competition’ to Avoid War
The former prime minister said the balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait had been shifting in favour of Beijing for some time.“Plainly, both sides are engaged in a strategic competition as to which country emerges as the pre-eminent regional and global power by mid-century,’’ Rudd said.
He continued that the biggest risk in the short to medium term will be a “war by accident” between the United States and China, describing it as a “real and present danger.”
The best way for superpowers to avoid accidental war is through a policy of “managed strategic competition,” he said. This would require the US and China to agree on a “strategic red line,” which, if crossed, could lead to a military escalation.
“That would pave the way for the resumption of normal diplomatic discourse across all the substantive questions which currently confront the bilateral relationship,” he said.