American power is such that elections are keenly watched no matter where in the world one lives. While only U.S. citizens get to vote, non-Americans still have a team for whom they barrack.
The reason for this type of behaviour is because of the major political, cultural, and social influence the United States has on the world.
Perhaps the most curious aspect of this influence is something called “tone.” It’s hard to pin down, but the tone is the “vibe” or zeitgeist we all feel in our lives.
Of course, what matters most for non-Americans is the U.S. presidential elections where the commander-in-chief and de facto leader of the free world is elected.
What is noticeable after the president is elected is how world leaders pay keen attention to the White House’s position on global matters—this is a physical manifestation of “tone.”
Another after-effect of tone, for example, is that the election of a Republican president will generally inspire conservative or right-wing political parties around the world. On the other hand, a Democrat president tends to inspire liberal-progressive or left-wing parties.
Thus, when former U.S. President Donald Trump came to power, the left across the world was visibly shaken. Whereas when President Joe Biden came to power, the opposite happened.
Hence, we saw how a Trump White House inspired the emergence of right-leaning governments globally.
Whereas a Biden White House has had the opposite effect as seen in the defeat of leaders such as Australia’s Scott Morrison, the UK’s Liz Truss, Germany’s Armin Laschet, Chile’s Sebastian Pinera, Argentina’s Rodolfo Suárez, and most recently, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro.
There is no science to explain this phenomenon. But there’s also no mistaking how the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections impacts the global zeitgeist.
Change Is Brewing in American Politics
But it is not only presidential elections that matter. The midterms for the Congress seats also matter because they set the parameters and limitations on how much the U.S. president can operate.Currently, the Biden administration struggles to get his plans legislated because of the precarious balanced Senate.
But, as we have seen, it is still not impossible for the Biden team to negotiate deals in Senate. So right now, the administration is not (yet) a lame duck.
However, the upcoming midterms bode well for the Republicans with potential victories in both the Senate and Congress. Such a victory will have many upsides and downsides.
The main upside is that a Republican victory will place more limitations on the president, and even the possible reversal of a range of initiatives including the Green New Deal.
Another upside of a Republican victory is possible cutbacks to the Washington “swamp” by refusing to pass budgets to pay for an increasingly bloated bureaucracy.
But most importantly, a victory would be an affirmation of a Republican Party remade by Trump’s conservative policies.
This would send a powerful message about the likelihood of a victory for Trump or a Trump-approved candidate in the next presidential election. And the return of a Trump would have implications way beyond America—re-energising conservatives and the right across the globe.
We should also consider the possible downside, and that is how the fear of Trumpian conservative politics mobilised an alliance of anti-Trump forces.
We saw an example of this when political strategist Mike Podhorzer brought together the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Federation of Labor, and the Congress of Industrial Organizations.
Or the informal alliance of left-wing activists, business titans, mainstream media, and Silicon Valley.
A Republican midterm victory could almost certainly stir these same fears.
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