Filmmaker Michael Moore on Thursday told Hill TV that he doesn’t believe in the accuracy of polls estimating the extent of the lead held by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden over President Donald Trump, warning that the Trump vote is being undercounted.
Moore said the most accurate estimate of voter preference for the two candidates is to cut Biden’s lead in the polls by half.
“I have to fight against this constantly,” Moore said, referring to what he suggested were overly optimistic projections of Biden support. “I need to remind people that the poll back in July said at that point that Biden was ahead in Michigan by 16 points. Trump has cut that in half,” he said.
“Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where they’re saying this morning […] that Biden’s ahead 5 points in Wisconsin, he’s maybe three points ahead in Florida, two points ahead in Arizona,” he said, adding, “Listen, don’t believe these polls.”
Moore then referred to a what has been sometimes noted as the “shy voter” phenomenon, with a recent study showing that nearly 12 percent of Republican voters fall into this category and suggesting they would be reluctant to disclose to pollsters their true preferences for who they would vote for in the presidential election and reinforcing the view that polls may not capture the full extent of support for Trump.
“The Trump vote is always being undercounted, the pollsters, when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter’s very suspicious of the ‘Deep State’ calling them and asking them who they’re voting for. It’s all fake news to them.” Moore said.
“So, it’s not an accurate count,” Moore said. “I think the safe thing to do, this is not scientific, I’m just saying, from my experience of being a Michigander, whatever they’re saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half, right now, in your head. Cut it in half, and now you’re within the four-point margin of error.”
“That’s how desperately close this is,” Moore added.
The most recent polling average published by RealClearPolitics shows a 7.4-point spread between the two candidates—Trump with 43.7 percent and Biden with 51.1 percent.
Moore, in an August post on Facebook, warned that the level of enthusiasm among Trump voters was extraordinarily high.
“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” Moore wrote.
Leib Litman, Co-CEO and Chief Research Officer of CloudResearch, in a note explaining a key takeaway from the study on the “shy voter” phenomenon, noted: “The results could have implications in terms of the true accuracy of phone polls; if Republicans, Independents, and supporters of Donald Trump (regardless of party affiliation) are less likely to participate in polls or accurately disclose the candidate they support, that inherently generates biased poll outcomes.”
Republican strategists, meanwhile, have said that the 2020 race for the White House is impossible to predict.
“Anyone who claims even at this late date to know with any degree of certainty who will win in November is delusional,” veteran conservative Republican strategist David Keene told The Epoch Times on Oct. 26.
Keene was a key campaign adviser to former Republican presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, as well as presidential aspirants Robert Dole and Mitt Romney. He was also chairman of the American Conservative Union from 1984 to 2011 and president of the NRA from 2011 to 2013.
“Add to this the growing difficulty of anyone regardless of their track record producing poll numbers that can be relied on and the difficulty of calculating just how issues like the pandemic itself and how it has been handled are playing among voters and you have a political fog that is almost impossible to penetrate,” he said.
Mark Tapscott contributed to this report.