The massacre at Orlando’s Pulse nightclub on June 12 was quickly followed by a spike in gun sales, firearm background checks, and political discussions on gun control. Previous mass shootings have had the same effects.
Omar Mateen, 29, opened fire in the Florida club with a Sig Sauer MCX semiautomatic rifle, while also carrying a handgun. He killed 49 people and injured 53.
Shares of gunmakers Smith & Wesson and Sturm Ruger spiked the next day. Sturm Ruger & Co Inc. gained 9.8 percent, or $5.66, by that afternoon, while Smith & Wesson rose 7.7 percent, or $1.66.
The uptick in gun sales and gun talk after a mass shooting, and the subsequent lull, is now a predictable cycle. The added factors this time around are a looming presidential election and the official declaration of gun violence as a “public health crisis” in America.
Sales and Background Checks
- (YTD Data from the Colorado Bureau of Investigation)
Gun sales increased in Colorado after James Holmes opened fire and killed 12 people in a movie theater on July 20, 2012, in Aurora.
Several months later, 20 elementary school children and six adults were killed in the Sandy Hook shooting in Connecticut.
Both events helped precipitate a record 389,604 background checks in 2013 that were approved by the Colorado Bureau of Investigation. That was 53,664 checks more than in 2012.
By 2014, the state’s background checks had scaled back to 308,908.
The weeks after the San Bernardino shooting were among the top 10 highest for the FBI’s firearm background-check system since reporting started on Nov. 30, 1998.
The precise number of guns sold in America is unknown—but the number of background checks, using the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), is often used as the best proxy.
- (Via fbi.gov)
“Not all gun transfers are subject to the background check requirement, and there’s no federal agency that tracks how many guns are sold, or to whom,” explained Joseph Blocher, a law professor at Duke specializing in the Second Amendment, which relates to Americans’ rights to bear arms.
But, based on the number of background checks, Blocher said, “Gun sales often surge right after a mass shooting. The standard explanation is that people buy up guns because they’re afraid of new regulations being passed.”
Hector Pagan, manager of Rieg’s Gun Shop in Orlando, said people buy guns during “political talk” because they’re afraid they might not be able to in the future. Fear about incidents like the recent Orlando shooting can also be a factor, Pagan said.
An employee at the Colorado Gun Broker in Littleton, Colorado, said gun sales spiked in 2013, following the Sandy Hook massacre in December 2012. After the recent Orlando shooting, the gun shop has not seen an increase in gun sales, but it has “had more inquiries,” said the employee, who chose not to give his name.
Aside from mass shootings and politics, it’s worth noting that price is a critical determining factor in gun sales. The biggest sales period of the year, from Black Friday to Christmas, includes the record-breakers for the highest numbers of background checks on a single day and over a week.
- (YTD Data Via FBI.gov)
On Black Friday, Nov. 27, 2015, the FBI reported a record-breaking 185,345 background checks for firearms in a single day. Coincidentally, it was the same day a gunman walked into a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs, killing three and injuring nine during a 5-hour standoff.
The second-highest day (177,170 background checks) was on Dec. 21, 2012—shortly after the Sandy Hook shooting.
“There was definitely an increased focus on gun regulation after Sandy Hook, at both the federal and state level,” said Blocher.
Political Pressure
