According to the new Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Poll released on April 9, 58 percent of voters say they approve of Trump’s economy, and 57 percent say they approve of his handling of jobs. However, 59 percent are very or somewhat worried about an economic downturn.
The “Battleground Poll” surveyed political opinion and civility among registered voters who were likely to vote, between March 31 and April 4 and has been conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners since 1991.
The poll data also showed that Trump’s unfavorable rating has remained consistent since he first announced he was running for president, at 55 percent for the past four years, while 41 percent of voters find him favorable. When asked the same question about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), 53 percent found her unfavorable, but only 37 percent found her favorable.
We’re excited to share our first #GUPoliticsBattlegroundPoll release of the 2020 cycle! Take a look at the data, insights, and analysis from pollsters Ed Goeas (Fall ’18 Fellow) and Celinda Lake here: https://t.co/lCaf6ferDx pic.twitter.com/s0R1rSRIoT
— Georgetown Politics (@GUPolitics) April 9, 2019
President Trump’s job approval is like magnetic north. It moves around, but you can still navigate by it. The latest Battleground poll has his approval at 43% among likely voters, with 52% disapproval. #GUPoliticsBattlegroundPoll
— B.J. Martino (@bjmartino) April 9, 2019
In the Democratic analysis (pdf), Lake and two other analysts—Daniel Gotoff and Corey Teter—said the data shows Democrats have work to do in responding to the economy, warning that if it doesn’t, it would “find itself in serious jeopardy for the 2020 election.”
They added that “attacking Trump will not be enough, particularly with a significant number of voters seemingly able to reconcile their misgivings about Trump with positive ratings of his handling of the economy.”
Meanwhile, Goeas and fellow Republican analyst Brian Nienaber said in their analysis (pdf) that, “successful candidates at all levels will need to find ways to ease the economic concerns of voters as well as make the case that they will be part of the solution and not of the institution.”
They added that for Trump to win a second term, he would need to repeat the dynamics of the 2016 campaign, adding that a majority of them approve his work on the economy and jobs and believe he is better at handling these issues than the Democrats.
“If he can again turn this election to a referendum on personal economic opportunity, while the Democrats remain focused on Donald Trump’s persona and style, he can win re-election,” they wrote.
Additionally, the poll found that the voters are already engaged at levels usually not seen until days before a contested election. Eighty-two percent of the 1,000 voters surveyed said they are extremely like to vote, with no difference in enthusiasm between political parties.
The findings from this poll are similar to other surveys released in the past few months. Data from a CNN poll (pdf) conducted by SSRS and released last month found that 71 percent overall think that the country’s economy under the Trump administration is in good shape—the highest number since February 2001 and the best rating Trump has received during his presidency—by two points.