Japan Is on the Front Lines of New Cold War, Researcher Warns

Japan's Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi waits for a meeting at the Pentagon with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin May 4, 2022, in Washington. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

A well-known Japanese commentator has said that the world is in a Cold War situation which has Japan on the front lines.

Kohyu Nishimura, a research fellow with the Institute of Asian Strategic Intelligence, told The Epoch Times that Japan is in danger, but the Japanese people do not understand it clearly.

“I think the world has entered a 21st-century version of the Cold War,” Nishimura said.

“In the past, during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, conflict over the Korean peninsular was the front line of the Cold War in East Asia,” Nishimura said.

“Today, 30 years after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the structure of the Cold War has completely changed,” he said.

“Tensions in this new Cold War have been transferred to the Japanese archipelago. Places such as Okinawa and Taiwan, that is, the area along the large archipelago line, have been pushed to the forefront of this new Cold War.

“The current problem is that Japanese nationals who are at the forefront do not clearly recognize the situation. Otherwise, the industrial chain should be withdrawn or transferred from communist China as soon as possible, and trade exchanges with China should be reduced on a large scale.”

He said that at present, some Japanese companies have realized the danger and have taken action, but more companies have yet to wake up.

“The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) inspectors (implying secret agents) have spread all over Japanese society, such as politics, business, administration, media, and elsewhere, ” Nishimura said.

“This restricts and constrains Japan’s actions against the CCP in many ways,” he said. “The term ‘economic security’ has become popular recently, and Japan is really in danger.”

Shangri-La Dialogue

Nishimura’s comments follow a speech given by Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi at the Shangri-La Dialogue, also known as Asian Security Conference, held in Singapore on June 11.

Kishi said that there are potential dangers in the Indo-Pacific region similar to Russian military aggression as per Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kishi said in his speech that he once again recognized that, “there is actually a country on earth that has really threatened to use nuclear weapons and use powerful military force to change the status quo unilaterally.”

Japan's Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi speaks at the Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore on June 11, 2022. (Roslan Rahman/AFP via Getty Images)

Considering China, which is stepping up its maritime activities, and North Korea, which is advancing nuclear and missile development, Kishi said there are potential dangers in the Indo-Pacific, similar to Russian aggression, adding that “this international concern has become a broad consensus.”

Kishi said Japan is at the front line to defend the rules-based international order. In order to fundamentally strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities, the Japanese government will secure a necessary defense budget.

He also said he saw that Beijing will not give up the possibility of using military force against Taiwan and building up its military power without transparency.

“Countries that ignore the rules, take advantage of other countries’ crises through loans and other means, so the cooperation is not reciprocal,” he said, alluding to the CCP’s use of the “The Belt and Road Initiative.” Behind the generous funding is adding the host country to an unbearable debt burden.

Successive Action

Kyodo News reported on June 7 that the Ministry of Defense of Japan plans to create an “integrated commander” position and an “integrated command” to provide support for the unified organization of the country’s military forces.

According to the report, considering China has strengthened its maritime activities and responded to new security fields such as space and cyber, the Ministry of Defense believes it is necessary to create new positions focused on improving its defense forces’ mobility.

Sankei Shimbun reported on June 4 that the Japanese government plans for the first time to send a civilian official of the Ministry of Defense to Taiwan to strengthen its information-gathering capabilities due to China’s increasingly aggressive military operations in the Taiwan Strait.

This is the second major change in the personnel of the Japanese Ministry of Defense in Taiwan after the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996 when Japan dispatched a retired self-defense officer to Taiwan to collect intelligence. Sankei Shimbun believes that Japan’s decision to send incumbent officials from the Ministry of Defense to Taiwan is a step forward in Japan’s security policy.

China's first home-built aircraft carrier sets out from the port of Dalian DSIC (Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co.) Shipyard for sea trials in Dalian, Liaoning Province of China on May 13, 2018. (Getty Images)

In May this year, Chinese military activity was frequently detected around Japan with the Chinese aircraft carrier “Liaoning” staying in waters south of Okinawa for about three weeks. Carrier-based fighters and helicopters took off and landed more than 300 sorties, while bombers flew twice over the area.

Kōji Yamazaki, the leader of Military Attaché of the Japanese Ministry of Defense and chief of staff, emphasized the sense of vigilance at a press conference held at the end of May, saying that “this is an activity that the Liaoning has never done before, and it has a great impact on the overall security.”

Japan’s Checks and Balances

Japanese commentator Nishimura believes that the country’s parliament and the Ministry of Defense should cooperate more closely, which he said is critical. In addition, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces should have more exchanges and cooperation with the Taiwanese military.

“Actually, the ‘2+2 talks’ (that is, the Japan-U.S. Security Assurance Agreement Committee) will take some steps on the Taiwan issue. Biden said that he will use military force, and I think it will work in this direction,” Nishimura said.

“From this point of view, if Japan does not improve its own checks and balances, it will be really in danger. Of course, it does not mean that something can be done immediately. Of course, constitutional reform is necessary, but once the constitution is involved, it will touch many CCP’s ‘inspectors’,” so that the constitution cannot be reformed smoothly.”

He also said that Japanese politicians should re-examine the “three non-nuclear principles.”

“As long as you question the ’three non-nuclear principles’ and apply for reform, it will arouse concern and controversy around the world, which will also enhance Japan’s balance and deterrence, and at least form a certain deterrent to North Korea and the CCP.”

The three non-nuclear principles refer to a doctrine that successive Japanese governments after World War II adhered to—not to be in possession of, or manufacture nor import nuclear weapons. Although former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suggested that was necessary to consider a “nuclear sharing” policy, the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has made it clear that he will still adhere to the doctrine.

Survey on Taiwan Invasion

Ninety percent of Japanese believe that Japan should prepare itself for China’s invasion of Taiwan, according to a survey conducted by the Japanese media Nikkei Asia in May.

Fifty percent of respondents said that Japan should act as much as possible within existing laws; 41 percent support changing the country’s constitution to enable military intervention. Overall, 91 percent of Japanese believe that Japan should prepare for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

As part of Nikkei Asia’s supporting report it said that in the event of an emergency in Taiwan, Japan will take action in accordance with the provisions of the Peace and Security Law (referred to as the Security Law). The law gives the Japan Self-Defense Forces the ability to conduct foreign operations in limited circumstances.

An H-6 bomber of the Chinese army flies near a Taiwan F-16 on Feb. 10, 2020. (Taiwan Ministry of National Defense/Handout via Reuters)

Past leader Abe has also made a series of remarks in support of Taiwan among them ones said at a forum held by the Institute of National Policy Studies, a non-governmental think tank in Taiwan at the end of 2021.

“If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem, and the Japan-U.S. alliance also has a problem,” he said.

Su Ziyun, director of Military Strategy and Industry, Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, told The Epoch Times that if China invades Taiwan, in accordance with the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and Japan’s “Self-Defense Forces Act”, Japan should support the U.S. logistics efforts and may provide some supplies to Taiwan.

“But Taiwan will not count on other countries to help,” Su Ziyun said. “We are strong enough to take responsibility for our own defense, this is the top priority. Of course, we are optimistic and welcome other countries’ support. But we have to be cautious.”

Epoch Times reporter Ellen Wan contributed to this report.