TEHRAN, Iran—Iranian moderates have won a majority in the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body that is tasked with choosing the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, and which was previously dominated by hard-liners.
The 88-member body is elected every eight years, and may choose the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been Iran’s top decision-maker since the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, died in 1989. Khamenei is 76 years old and underwent prostate surgery in 2014, raising concerns about his health.
The newly elected body could therefore play a major role in shaping the future of Iran, which is deeply divided between hard-liners who are hostile to the West and relative moderates who want to expand freedoms and improve relations with the international community.
What Kind of Successor Do the Moderates and Hard-Liners Seek?
If the moderates have their way, the next supreme leader will favor the expansion of democratic freedoms and greater openness toward the West. The hard-liners would likely prefer a leader even more hard-line than Khamenei, who is deeply suspicious of the United States and fears Western influence could undermine the Islamic Republic.
The moderates tend to see the government’s legitimacy as deriving from elections, while hard-liners see it as coming from adherence to a strict interpretation of Islam regardless of its popularity. Both camps, however, remain committed to the ruling system and the role of Islam in public life, meaning the next supreme leader is unlikely to favor radical change.
How Does the Assembly Choose the Next Supreme Leader?
The Experts Assembly has only chosen a supreme leader once, after Khomeini’s death in 1989, so there is little precedent to go by.
The assembly also conducts much of its work in secret. The names of potential successors are kept secret, and the assembly covertly monitors their personal and public lives. Rafsanjani broke a taboo in December when he said a committee within the assembly has begun putting together a list of possible replacements for Khamenei.
Should Khamenei pass away or become incapacitated, the assembly would meet to vote on a successor, who could come from within the body or outside of it. They would then hold a secret ballot where the candidate would be chosen by a simple majority. The successor would then be announced to the public.
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